Webinar: Kurdistan Between Iran’s Hammer and Iraq’s Anvil – July 20, 2022
One of the reasons that Iran and Iranian-backed groups started to target the Kurdistan region’s oil sector is because there were plans by the Kurdistan region to develop the gas sector. By developing this gas sector and also growing gas infrastructure with pipelines, Iraq could become less dependent on Iran for electricity and gas, because, until now, most of the electricity and gas is imported from Iran by Baghdad. If Kurdistan’s gas sector would be developed then at that point, the Kurdistan vision could domestically first produce gas for itself for electricity, but then also start exporting gas and electricity to other parts of Iraq. That will endanger the Iraqi dependence on gas from Iran.
The Supreme Court doesn’t see it as a purely Iraqi decision. They think this is also a way for Iran to pressure Iraqi Kurds on the infrastructure sector, although the Iraqi government they deny this and basically says it’s only because they disagree with the Kurdish independent oil exports, but Erbil disagrees with that. Another thing is that these drone attacks are especially dangerous. For instance, the Erbil Airport; there are many civilian airliners there, so if there is a drone attack in the future or any rocket attack on the Erbil airport, it could be a major disaster. And the US coalition and the US military have put several defense strategies, but these measures only defend the airport or coalition bases. Despite that, it’s very difficult to protect the airport against such attacks, because even when you defend yourself, it could also end up that you hit yourself. That is to say that the coalition itself hits a civilian airliner.
Kurds try to be very neutral on these kinds of oil and gas disputes, and it’s not in the interest of Kurds to be involved in Israeli-Iranian, or American-Iranian power competition in the region, but they do want to develop their own oil and gas resources, and that’s why they’re increasingly becoming a target. Also because the Kurds, in general, are very friendly to foreigners. I mean, there are many coalition forces here, not just Americans; there are Dutch, Germans, French, Italians, and many different forces. And unlike some political parties in the rest of Iraq, the Kurds want them to stay because they see this as a balance against their neighbors who may not have such friendly ambitions or intentions towards an autonomous Kurdistan region. So that’s why Kurds, they see it as very important for the coalition to stay. We all remember when Obama decided to withdraw troops, and after that, there was a lot of chaos.
There was also another question about what other countries could do. I mean, you have several consulates here; they could do more in promoting. Someone was asking about how the local citizens do not profit from the energy income. What the consulates here are trying to do is to promote more accountability and transparency, and they try to invest in young people. I think if there’s more investment in younger initiatives, young businessmen, local entrepreneurs, and small companies, it could in the long run help the Kurdistan region to be less dependent on oil, because one of the issues is that both Iraq and the Kurdistan region, they have what they call a ‘Dutch Disease’ that they live off oil resources, but they import almost everything, and they don’t export many products. Thus, it will be good to try to develop the private sector more and to reduce the bureaucracy, which this current Kurdish government is trying to do.