Washington Kurdish Institute
November 5, 2019
Part I
As soon as US President Donald Trump ordered a hasty retreat from Syria, the far-ranging consequences became apparent throughout the Middle East on many levels, military and political.
Who are the winners?
The winners of the sudden withdrawal of US forces from Syria are well established, and include ISIS, Turkey’s authoritarian President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish–backed jihadist militias, the Syrian Assad regime, Russia, and Iran.
Turkish–backed jihadist militias include many groups, some of whom have or had links to al-Qaida. They had previously lost much of the territory under their control in the west and south of the Syria for various reasons including divisions amongst themselves, backlash to their criminality and brutality, and, most important, agreements between Turkey and Russia concerning Syria. For example, Erdogan, who was a top supporter of various jihadist groups in Syria, conceded to the demands of Russia many times in Syria, ordering Turkish-backed jihadst groups to retreat from Ghouta, Aleppo, Hama, and Homs. In return for bending to these Russian demands, Russia allowed Erdogan to invade Kurdish areas in Syria and eventually occupy some majority Kurdish regions of the country. Indeed, despite vocal support for removing the Syrian regime, Erdogan’s top priority had always been to occupy Kurdish land in Syria and persecute Syria’s Kurdish population. Indeed, soon after Turkish-backed jihadists left their areas of origin in Syria, Erdogan gathered them together under the command of the Turkish military to attack the Kurds. In early 2018, acting in close coordination with the Turkish military, these groups invaded, looted, and occupied Afrin and committed various war crimes and atrocities, and to this day the once peaceful region of Afrin remains unstable and plagued by feuding jihadist groups. The invasion and occupation of Afrin occupation took place with Russia’s consent, as Russia controlled the airspace over Afrin and much of western Syria. Idlib was a stronghold for various jihadist groups, though once again Erdogan took orders from Russia and facilitated the departure of these groups from Idlib, later using them to attack the Kurds. Many of the Turkish-backed fighters attacking the Kurds today were previously members of al-Qaida or ISIS, and these terror groups were given a new lease on life by the US withdrawal. Erdogan backs these groups not only because he seeks to eliminate the Kurdish people of Syria, but also because, ideologically, he has a great affinity for these extremists. It remains to be seen if Russia will eventually demand that Turkey cease its support for these Turkish-backed jihadists now waging war against the Kurdish people.
ISIS is another big winner of changes made possible by President Trump’s decision. They are quite similar to Turkish-backed jihadist groups and many members of these other groups would likely not hesitate to join ISIS in the future if ISIS reestablishes itself as a regional power. Indeed, the question may not be if but rather when ISIS reemerges. While many of their leaders have been killed, the group is nonetheless active on a daily basis in both Iraq and Syria. Al- Qaida leader Osama Bin Laden also was killed in 2011, but today his organization’s Syrian affiliate counts 12,000 and 15,000 militants, including many foreigners in Syria, among their ranks. ISIS will certainly look to gain support and cooperation through various means, including intimidation, from the Sunni Arab population in Syria who fear the return of the Assad regime to their areas if the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are eliminated by Turkey.
At present, approximately 70,000 family members of ISIS fighters and ISIS supporters are detained in loosely guarded camps under the control of the SDF and authorities of the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, while another 10,000 captured ISIS fighters are held in prisons controlled by the SDF. These various detention centers are now vulnerable because the SDF is forced to prioritize self defence against the Turkish military invasion over guarding prisons and camps, and Turkey has attacked these sites over the past 3 weeks, resulting in the escape of over 750 of these dangerous prisoners.
Turkey’s Erdogan is another big winner. The Turkish economy has been deteriorating mostly due to corruption and Erdogan’s reckless foreign policies, and Erdogan faced a strong threat from a united opposition in the country’s most recent local elections. To distract from economic troubles and rally the masses, Erdogan has embarked on another foreign adventure and framed this military aggression in religious and nationalistic terms to rally the Turkish masses. Erdogan’s chief goals in Syria is the destruction of the Autonomous Administration that allows Kurds and other ethnic groups of the region to have a say in their own lives and to drive Kurds from their homeland within Syria’s borders. Unfortunately, the withdrawal of US forces with whom the SDF was previously working have made this possible. Erdogan does not want Kurds living freely within Turkey’s borders, nor does he want Kurds living freely anywhere near Turkey’s borders. As recent history has demonstrated, Erdogan has no major issue with ISIS or other jihadist groups controlling Syrian territory along the country’s border with Turkey – he only wants to be sure that Kurds themselves do not do so.
The Assad regime, the dictatorship that has ruled Syria with an iron fist for decades, is also a winner, even if Assad has much less power over the country than he did before its civil war. While he may work with Turkey to eliminate the Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration, his top priority beyond simply remaining in power is likely to destroy the jihadist groups active throughout Syria, including those supported by Turkey. Russia has made it clear that the Kurds of Syria must submit to the Syrian regime, and the return of regime forces to various areas once ruled by the self-governing authorities of the Autonomous Administration including Manbij, Tabqa, and Raqqa seem inevitable. The return of Assad’s forces and institutions to North and East Syria will only give his dictatorship more legitimacy and an upper hand of the future talks Syrian parties and within the international community.
Russia wins on many fronts. The Russians have struck a great blow against NATO in two ways – they witnessed the departure of American forces from Syria and managed to pull Turkey apart from the US and the rest of NATO, all while becoming the strongest powerbroker in Syria and the region thanks to President Trump and preserving the rule of Assad, who is extremely indebted to Russia.
Russia will now determine for the fate of the Kurds in Syria as well as Iraq due to the US withdrawal. In Iraq, Russia has enjoyed a position of influence in the Kurdistan Region since the Russian Rosneft bailed out the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) with billions of dollars in investment while the Kurds faced the major economic crisis two years ago. Furthermore, the perceived pro-Baghdad leanings of the US government during disagreements between the Iraqi central government and the KRG increased Russia’s influence in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Outside of Syria and Iraq, Russian influence in the Middle East also continues to grow. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to the Arab Gulf countries was welcomed by its leaders, who were eager for more Russian investment into the region. Furthermore, the sudden decision by the US to withdraw from Syria and abandon its allies has prompted many Middle Eastern leaders to reevaluate the strength and permanence of their own alliances with the US.
Iran, on the other hand, is a winner on many fronts as well. Trump’s retreat will facilitate the expansion of the influence of Iranian-backed militias south of the Kurdish region of Syria, as there is no more US military presence to provide a buffer and deterrent to their operations. As a result, Iran will have more influence in Syria – contrary to the stated aims of this and other US administrations.