Washington Kurdish Institute
May 18, 2018
On April 18, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan decided to call for snap parliamentary and presidential elections, which will be held on June 24, 2018. These elections were originally planned for November 3, 2019. There are many reasons for Erdogan to call for early elections, including Turkey’s economic climate, always been at the core of politics races in Turkey as elsewhere. Recently the Turkish Lira hit an historical low, while the government is promoting economic growth and attempting to avoid the potential dark side. Other reasons include the recent Turkish referendum, as Erdogan seeks to further solidify his presidential powers even though he is already the number one decision maker in the country.
For the Kurds and the progressive Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), these elections will be as important as the 2015 elections, when they received more than 10% of the vote, earning the right to enter parliament as a bloc for the first time ever. But significant challenges remain in Kurdish areas of the country. The HDP have lost a dozen lawmakers to the purge undertaken by Erdogan’s government since the failed coup attempt of July 2016. As a result of this campaign, Erdogan’s government has jailed tens of thousands of people including journalists, academics, and politicians. The coup attempt was apparently planned by ultra-nationalists within the Turkish military, though Erdogan has used this coup as a pretense to suppress his all of his opponents, including the HDP, who immediately and unreservedly condemned the coup attempt. In addition, Erdogan has attacked Kurdish areas in Turkey and Syria under the pretext of battling Kurdish militants, who have fought the Turkish government over the rights of the Kurds for four decades. Both former HDP co-chairs are currently jailed for “spreading terrorist propaganda,” a charge that thousands of people are similarly accused of throughout Turkey. For these elections, the HDP have nominated Selahattin Demirtas, their former co-chair who is now in jail, and remains perhaps the country’s most popular and recognized Kurdish politician. Demirtas remains in prison despite calls by the HDP and other Turkish presidential candidates for his release to comprise a fair election.
Speaking to the Washington Kurdish Institute (WKI) about these snap elections, Deniz Ekici, Executive Director of the Kurdish Policy Research Center said: “The Turkish opposition parties in the parliament see this as a chance to topple Erdogan, however, given the circumstances (the lack of free media, emergency law, fragmented and ineffective opposition, etc.), it is likely that Erdogan will win the elections, which will be the end of parliamentary system and semi-democratic regime in favor of an Islamist-leaning government in Turkey.”
Erdogan’s government has taken a very aggressive approach against journalists and media outlets who have opposed him. In recent years, prominent Turkish journalists have been sentenced to life in prison, and Erdogan’s government has also shut down many Kurdish news outlets and even children’s’ television shows. Recently, the leading mainstream media company in the country was bought by a pro-government agency as a last step to eliminate any opposing voice.
The emergency laws enacted after the failed coup were another tool used by Erdogan to conduct raids and military operations anywhere inside and outside the country. The United Nations described the emergency laws as “collective punishment.”
Ekici highlighted the reasons behind Erdogan’s decision for snap elections: “The reasons are manifold. First of all, Erdogan wants the elections before the economic crisis hanging over Turkey like the Sword of Damocles hits hard. Second, winning the elections will give Erdogan a chance to consolidate his power by implementing the constitutional changes which will bring the presidential system to Turkey, diminishing the power of the parliament. Thirdly, Erdogan wants to ride the wave of nationalism arising from his victory in the Kurdish city of Afrin, Syria while it is still fresh.”
When Erdogan decided to invade Afrin, a Kurdish city in Syria, ultra-nationalists in the military and right wingers in Turkey quickly rallied behind him. The operation to seize control of Afrin, which was executed by the Turkish military, who used modern weaponry and were backed by a coalition of radical Islamist jihadist groups, lasted for about 2 months, after which the Kurdish forces known as the People’s Defense Units (YPG) retreated from the city to avoid further civilian casualties. Nonetheless, the military operation resulted in the deaths of hundreds of civilians, brought about demographic changes, and increased the prominence of a number of jihadist groups supported by Erdogan’s government.
When Ekici was asked about the likely Kurdish turnout for the upcoming elections he said: “The ruling party of Justice and Development Party (AKP) will not enjoy the support it received from Kurdish voters in the previous elections for a few reasons: First, the AKP adopted an anti-Kurdish policy in 2014 and didn’t shy away from openly expressing this new stance. As a manifestation of this policy, the AKP supported ISIS in Syria and Iraq, to undo the Kurdish gains; it razed Kurdish cities to the ground, killing hundreds of civilians. What is more, as a result of Erdogan’s crackdown on Kurdish opposition, thousands of HDP members including HDP co-chairs were imprisoned, while more than 80 elected Kurdish mayors were removed and replaced by appointed loyal AKP bureaucrats. As a result, very few Kurds may vote for Erdogan and his AKP.”
In many cases, Erdogan uses the Kurds in his speeches, but the reality of his actions toward Kurds and majority Kurdish areas in Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey clearly shows he is against the existence of the Kurds.
When asked about the threshold in the upcoming elections, and whether the HDP will get more than 10% of votes to guarantee their continued representation in parliament, Ekici said, “The electoral process will not be free and fair. Erdogan has either imprisoned or banned prominent Kurdish politicians from politics. That’s why Kurds have to find new candidates strong enough to rally Kurds around the HDP. Still, the biggest challenge to the HDP – and other opposition parties for that matter – will be the current emergency laws, which bring many restrictions to the opposition parties – including the right of assembly – which will constrain election campaigns. Equally important is the passage of a new law that allows only civil servants employed by the government to work as polling clerks at polling stations. The same law gives the Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey the authority to merge electoral districts, especially in opposition strongholds, in favor of AKP. And lastly, according to the new law, ballot slips that are not stamped by the Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey will be counted as valid, which raises concerns about electoral fraud. Approving unstamped ballots at a referendum last year raised concern about the fairness of the elections. I believe HDP can win more than 10% of the votes in fraud-free elections.”
Ekici believes that the alliances between four major Turkish opposition parties might be enough to challenge Erdogan: “Forming an alliance between the opposition parties is the only viable challenge to the AKP and Erdogan in the upcoming elections. As a matter of fact, four Turkish opposition parties (CHP, Good Party, Felicity Party and the Democrat Party) announced an electoral alliance, excluding the pro-Kurdish HDP. This alliance might have a chance at posing a challenge to Erdogan, again, assuming it will be free and fair elections.”
Turkey is at a crossroads as it prepares for a new era of autocracy should Erdogan win. The people of Turkey are suffering under the AKP system, which is anti-free speech, democracy, and human rights, but certainly the Kurds will continue to receive the lion share of injustice by Erdogan.