Washington Kurdish Institute
May 3, 2023
The Syrian revolution against the Assad regime has been going on for 12 years. Despite this, the dictator was able to crush most of the opposition forces by 2016. This was especially true in the battle for Aleppo, where the regime and Russian forces committed atrocities against the population.
There were a number of factors that helped Assad to achieve victory. One was the negative role played by Turkey in Syria. Turkey supported some of the opposition groups, but it also allowed radical groups such as al Qaeda and ISIS to operate from within its territory. This made it more difficult for the opposition to gain international support.
Another factor that helped Assad was the division among armed groups. These groups were often more interested in fighting the Kurds than defeating the regime, as they bought into Turkey’s narrative and agendas in Syria. Most notably, the Assad regime was able to benefit from Russian support as the latter entered the war in 2015, and its air force played a key role in helping the regime to retake territory.
The Syrian regime is continuing its efforts to normalize relations with the Arab world after years of isolation. Steps towards this goal have already begun, and include Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad’s April 14 visit to Algeria to strengthen bilateral ties between the two countries. On April 16, Mekdad announced that Syria’s return to the Arab League would be “almost impossible” before bilateral relations were normalized. Likewise, on April 18, the Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan visited Damascus and met directly with Bashar al-Assad. On April 14, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi announced that he wanted the Arab League to readmit Syria and proposed an Arab-led peace plan to end the ongoing conflict in the region. Before that, Assad met with the UAE’s president in Abu Dhabi. Despite some resistance from Qatar, the Assad regime is on a fast track to return to the Arab League and restore relations throughout the region after 13 years. All the Arab nations reopening to the Assad regime were previously funders and supporters of various Syrian opposition groups.
What is left for change seekers?
The Kurdish-led self-administration was established in 2012 as a response to the Syrian civil war and the chaos that ensued. It was formed as an inclusive system that sought to bring together the diverse communities of northern and eastern Syria, including Arabs, Kurds, Christians, and others, to govern themselves and build a new society based on shared principles of democracy, equality, and human rights. Later, the self administration became the Autonomous Administration of North and East of Syria (AANES) which sought to implement radical changes to the existing political and economic structures, such as gender equality, ecological sustainability, and cooperative ownership of resources. However, the establishment of AANES was met with opposition from Turkey, who saw it as a threat to its national security and the territorial integrity of Syria. Turkey has long been involved in the Syrian conflict, backing various armed groups like the Syrian National Army (SNA) and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to achieve its strategic interests, which includes the control of Syria’s northern border.
Parallel to the establishment of AANES, Turkish-backed groups attempted to govern the areas they occupied, such as Afrin and Idlib, but they failed to provide basic services and maintain law and order. These areas have become lawless, with widespread reports of human rights violations, including arbitrary arrests, extrajudicial executions, and forced displacement. The Turkish-backed groups have also been accused of looting and plundering the resources of the areas they control. The failure of these groups to govern effectively has contributed to the instability and violence in Syria, prolonging the suffering of the Syrian people. The contrast between the inclusive and democratic approach of AANES and the failed governance of the Turkish-backed groups highlights the importance of supporting grassroots initiatives that prioritize the interests of local communities over narrow political and military agendas.
Ideally, the AANES and moderate opposition groups would be able to form a partnership in the next phase of the Syrian conflict. A partnership between these two groups could create a more stable and democratic future for Syria, as both share a commitment to a pluralistic and inclusive society. However, such a partnership would be challenging to achieve given Turkey’s opposition to both the AANES and the moderate opposition.
Turkey has consistently viewed the AANES as a threat to its national security as its policies has been anti-Kurds for a century; it has launched three military operations against Kurdish-led forces in northern Syria. Turkey has backed opposition groups in Syria that are hostile to the AANES and are also opposed to President Bashar al-Assad’s government, and any efforts to form a partnership between the AANES and the moderate opposition would likely face significant obstacles from the Erdogan regime.
This leaves the Kurds with a difficult choice, as they may be forced to work with the Assad government for their survival. The Syrian government has historically oppressed the Kurds, but they may see aligning with the Demascus as the only way to protect themselves from Turkish aggression. Nonetheless, the challenges presented by Turkey’s opposition make it difficult for the Kurds to pursue any other viable strategy for survival.
Assad is a dictator, and his victory will represent the end of hope for democracy. The only way out is for the US and EU to pressure moderate groups to agree with AANES in a final attempt to permanently establish some sort of decentralized governance system within the country. Absent this, the US’s de facto acceptance of regional normalization with Assad should come with pressure on the actors opening up to Assad to keep the AANES alive. The Syrian revolution has been a long and bloody conflict, and it has caused immense suffering for the Syrian people. An unmitigated victory for the Assad regime would be a setback for democracy and human rights. It is a reminder that dictators can still prevail, even in the face of popular uprisings.