Washington Kurdish Institute
October 12, 2022
The prospect of peace – Erdogan’s diplomacy on the “Kurdish Issue”
The Peace Process with the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey harnessed immense support from the international community and Turkish society. As leader of Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Recep Tayyip Erdogan appeared as the progressive leader the region needed. By addressing the “Kurdish issue” through diplomacy and peace-talks, Erdogan painted himself as a European-esque leader and welcomed the idea for Turkey to possibly join the European Union.
In hindsight, it is clear that Erdogan’s intentions for peace were a means to an end as he sought Kurdish support to crown himself as the absolute leader. In 2015, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) won 13.1% of Turkey’s votes in Turkey’s parliamentary elections, resulting in the defeat of Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) of its majority for the first time since 2003. In reaction, the AKP’s leader and the President Erdogan, ended the Peace Process with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and launched a series of aggressive actions against Kurds in Turkey. First by imprisoning HDP elected officials, most notably HDP leader and 2014 Presidential hopeful Selahattin Demirtaş. At the time, Erdogan saw the HDP as perhaps the largest domestic threat to his political power in Turkey and immediately changed the course of Turkish policy toward all Kurds living in Turkey. President Erdogan’s policies against the Kurds in Turkey quickly evolved into Turkey’s most brutal campaigns against Kurds in Syria, and Iraq as well.
Turkey’s foreign policy is detrimental to global security
To ensure Erdogan’s grasp on power, Turkey’s foreign policy has been operating on anti-Kurdish rhetoric at home and abroad. Since 2015, Erdogan succeeded in two elections and a referendum to cover the country’s economic problems by attacking Kurds and rallying support around the flag.
In Syria, Turkey launched three invasions into Syria’s Kurdish regions, committing acts of ethnic cleansing, supporting radical groups, and derailing the fight against ISIS (Da’esh) by targeting Kurdish fighters allied with the United States. Turkey’s policies in Syria have contributed immensely to the spread of extremism, which diverted the Syrian uprising against the dictatorship to establishing terror rulings. Turkey’s support of radical groups started in the early days of the Syrian revolution. It peaked in 2014 when the Turkish authorities turned a blind eye to thousands of ISIS fighters entering Syria from Turkey. Moreover, Turkey formed thousands of Syrian proxies, including former ISIS terrorists, using them as tools to fight the Kurds, change the demography of the Kurdish areas, and displace their populations.
After almost twelve years of carrying out the “regime change” banner in Syria, Turkey’s Erdogan and other officials recently expressed normalization with the Syrian regime. The remarks raised anger among many Syrians, sparking protests in the occupied Turkish areas, including Afrin, al Bab, Idlib, and other towns across the region. Outrage sparked when the Turkish foreign minister confirmed his meeting with his Syrian counterpart, a meeting he said was suggested by Russian President Vladimir Putin. This was followed by a meeting between Turkey’s spy chief Hakan Fidan and his Syrian counterpart Ali Mamluk.
Turkey’s role in Syria has also devastated Syrian refugees in Turkey. As millions of Syrians were forced to flee from Assad, Da’esh and al Qaeda offshoots, these same refugees now living in Turkey face racism, hate crimes, and acts of violence against them. The main discourse for the 2023 elections in Turkey focuses on the Syrian refugees, who are accused of “stealing Turkish jobs.” Members of Turkey’s far-right opposition party have made speeches linking Syrians to garbage. This kind of rhetoric is all too familiar and should not surprise anyone when they hear that Erdogan plans to build settlements for the Arab population on Kurdish lands in Afrin and along the towns near the Turkish borders.
In addition to spreading terrorism, encouraging hate speech within its borders, ending the uprising, and empowering the Syrian regime, the Turkish policy in Syria after 2015 has demonstrated Erdogan’s strategy going forward. However, these policies are perhaps destined to backfire.
Turkey’s support of radical groups will turn against them as the country seeks diplomatic normalization with the Assad regime. While Turkey accuses Syrian Kurds of “terrorism,” the same Turkish government cooperated with the People’s Defense Forces (YPG) in Syria on at least one occasion in 2015. Many of these radical groups are linked to al Qaeda, who won’t accept the return of the Assad regime, and vice versa. Terrorist groups closest to ISIS ideology could easily ally, even temporarily, against the Syrian regime and Turkey. One can remember how the US supported the Taliban against Russia in Afghanistan, only for them to turn on the US and cooperate with al Qaeda leading to the 911 terror attacks.
Second, the normalization with the Assad regime means surrendering all these areas that Turkey occupied in Syria back to Assad, not the opposition. In addition to being the last nail in the coffin for Syria’s uprising, the Assad regime will more than likely not return alone but with Iranian militias and Russian forces in tow. As a result, the southern border of Turkey will be under the influence of Iran, Russia, and the Syrian regime— granting Russia more power over Turkey, making Iranian militias expand further with easy access into Turkey. This naturally will result in more displacement of the Sunni population into Turkey.
How answering the “Kurdish Question” can lead to regional stability
For the sake of remaining in power, Erdogan has devastated Kurdish, Syrian, and Turkish interests, resulting in the death of thousands of civilians. The solution to peaceful stability in Syria, Turkey, and the region is through the reestablishment of peace between Turkey and Kurds throughout the region.
First, the Kurdish question in Turkey is much easier to solve than in Iraq or Iran since the Kurdish parties do not seek independence but aim for cultural and political equality. In the past five decades the Turkish government’s war against the Kurds has cost the state a significant financial loss, shaken the country’s economy, and reversed diplomatic progress with Europe. Moreover, despite decades of conflict, the 2015 Peace Process enjoyed immense support from both Turks and Kurds. The PKK repeatedly expressed support for any peace process and even laying down arms.
Second, if peace with Kurds is realized within Turkey, it will provide significant pressure for the powers in Syria, Iraq, and the rest of the region to open serious discussion. For example, Turkey can be a peacemaker between the Kurds and the moderate Turkish-backed Syrian opposition groups to unite and stand against the Assad regime. Such understanding will build momentum in stopping the flow of refugees to Turkey, easing the burden on the Turkish government. Peace between anti-Assad Syrians and the Kurds will likely have a stabilizing effect in the short term since a large swath of Syria is under the control of the Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration for North and East of Syrian (ANNES) and Turkish occupation. With Kurdish help, the Syrian opposition can also extract extremist groups that Turkey supported and ensure Assad-free stability.
Investing in “the center of the world”
Perhaps more important for Turkey’s economic future, international support in the wake of such an alliance as mentioned above will open the doors for immense financial support. Such support could contribute to rebuilding war-torn areas and stabilize what is left under the opposition groups. For example, the US has recently issued an exemption to the AANES areas, opening doors to foreign investments. Turkish-led peace would provide endless opportunities for Turkey’s economy as the region could capitalize further on trade and extraction of its vast natural resources to the West, thus becoming the true hub of economic activity in the region. Given its geography and involvement as a NATO ally, Turkey would also have the opportunity to become the primary caretaker to reconstruct Syria. Having such a direct hand in this endeavor would no doubt benefit the country.
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq was one of the first powers to support and aid the Peace Process between the Government and PKK. Peace in Turkey and Syria should also end the Turkish occupation of Iraqi-Kurdistan under the pretext of fighting the PKK. As a result, Turkey will winover the Iraqi Kurds, allowing both regions to enjoy mutual economic and political success. If violence along Kurdistan-Iraq’s northern border will cease, Baghdad will likely follow suit and reestablish economically beneficial relationships with Turkey. Indeed, such a peace process would establish both Turkey and Iraqi-Kurdistan as the centers of economic and political progress in the region. Likewise, Iranian Kurds would likely no longer hesitate to open up to Turkish trade and dialogue. It is the economic imperative of Turkey to promote peace in the region, and become the true economic center of the Middle East.
The Kurdish Regions are rich in natural resources, human capacity, and geographic uniqueness which the Turkish government could harness to improve its own political and economic standing. Turkey opening up to the Kurds will no-doubt provide opportunities for significant prosperity not only to Turkey, but all regions which engage with it. By opening up its domestic policies in support of Kurdish identity, Turkey risks nothing. Rather, the country could gain major influence and stability at its borders earning political leverage from the west of Iran to the west of Syria.
However, under its current leadership, Turkey backslides into an ever growing sinkhole of war and economic defeat. At the same time, the current Turkish opposition parties have yet to be brave, and frank with their constituents about how opening to the Kurds means prosperity and security.
While the world is eager to see the winner of the 2023 elections in Turkey, real work should be focused on the Turkish opposition, especially by the international community. The geographic positioning of Turkey means it will always exist within the web of Kurdish influence. Bigotry, racism and violence will not erase the ancient cultures which have survived millenia in the region. Only by creating inclusive policies can Turkey escape its cascade into entropy. Indeed, the Turkish problem will always exist without a Kurdish solution.