Impact of Rising Inflation on Turkish Kurds’ Material Conditions and Turkish Politics
Thank you for the introduction. I’d like to start with a couple of problems that are happening right now in Turkey, specifically political and economic problems. As probably most of you are aware, inflation is high and the dollar has increased 18.4% last month, which is one of the highest in his three years probably. And the Turkish lira is 46% weaker than last year. And because of that economically people are not doing well, especially the working class and lower-middle-class are doing terribly. Whoever I talk to they complain everything has been so expensive. And especially as we think of the Kurdish region, most of these people were middle class, working-class, or lower class. And so, they got even poorer because of the rise in prices of goods. So politically, as you can imagine, people are not happy, and they don’t want any more of the AKP party. And there has been a coalition formed against the AKP party, which is made up of about six or seven political Kurdish Turkish parties. And they want to have their own individual run for the next election, which will take place in mid-2023. And they’re hoping that they will be able to kick out the AKP party in the parliament. I’ve done some research to see what people are thinking, and I found some polling that shows the parties and how they think. And the first poll that I found was that people believe in opposition parties more than the AKP party, people especially think that the opposition party will be able to do better economically. And polling also shows that the approval rating for Erdogan is at the lowest since 2015, sitting at about 38% to 33%. He used to get approval ratings over 50%. The main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party, had a 23% support rate, and the HDP party had a 9.4% approval rating. These numbers are in line with what they usually get. And the polling also shows that more people, at least most people, believe that the government has taken some measures to improve the economy but that it’s not going to work out and things are not going to get better.
Turkey’s Opposition Alliance
What is this opposition party about? There are about six to seven political parties. As well a pro-Kurdish party is also talking to them and are trying to find a good candidate for the presidential election and to focus on some shared principles with the opposition party like justice. This is because justice has been denied for the last ten years. The media is not free. Academic freedom has declined as well, people are not able to talk or do research on certain things. The law has been used to discriminate against certain individuals. They also want a return to the parliamentary system, which was changed a few years ago. So while these things are happening, what’s happened to the Kurds. What are the Kurds doing? Kurds are still being targeted. And recently in May 2021 in Konya, which is a central city, seven members of a Kurdish family were killed by a group of about 60 Turkish nationalists because they were told they have no right to live in Konya. Konya is not a Kurdish city, rather mostly Turkish people live in the city. They want to get rid of them. These instances of discrimination, killings, and hate crimes are believed to be encouraged by the state or the source of it is the state. This is not just on an individual level, there have also been HDP party, pro-Kurdish party, members under immense pressure. Many HDP executives and elected officials have been charged with terrorism. Many mayors have lost their jobs, other officials just fired them literally. And these are elected officials being fired from their positions not democratically replaced. Just yesterday Erdogan stated, we don’t want to see an extension of the PKK terrorist group in the Turkish parliament. There is a growing call for Turkish political leaders to have the HDP party officially closed down. So probably the next step is to close down the HDP. But again, most of those individuals, Kurdish officials are already in prison and they’re supporters as well. So this is what happens generally in Turkey.
Turkey’s Involvement in Syria and Iraq
Turkey also has a lot of involvement in Syria and in Iraq. So I like to also talk briefly about these issues that they have. Turkey uses chemical weapons against fighters of the PKK in the Kurdish Regional Government in the last six months and before. This is a violation of the chemical weapons convention which Turkey signed in 1997. They are not just using those weapons against PKK members. Many Iraqi Kurdish civilians lost their lives. I don’t have the exact numbers but it’s over 40 people. The bombing continues in Kobani and other Kurdish cities in Northern Syria. Turkey also has been cutting off the water to these areas where Kurds live. Turkey’s goal is to ethnically cleanse Kurds, Christians, and others in Northern Syria, and then replace them with the Arab Syrians. The bombing creates a lot of instability, fear, frustration among Kurds and others. These violations were not committed against just Kurdish fighters, but civilians were also targeted or Turkey didn’t care if that was a civilian or not. Turkey is using former Syrian radical rebels to fight against the Kurds in Syria and others. From time to time Russia stepped up and used airstrikes against Turkey to stop their expansion in Northern Syria. As well Russia and Turkey have tried to pressure Kurdish people, Kurdish organizations in Syria, to talk to Damascus. As we know, Damascus is not interested in talks. Assad is not interested in talking to Kurds or giving them any rights. So when we talk about the middle east we have to talk about the United States. So as we know, during the Trump administration, things have changed dramatically and the Trump administration ignored Turkey’s invasion of offering in 2018. During that invasion, more than 160,000 Kurds, Christians, and others were ethnically cleansed and had to leave their homes.
How the political situation has changed since the Biden Administration
The Trump administration ignored Turkey’s attack on SDF forces, but things have changed since Biden has taken the office. And he has done a couple of things that I think are essential for Kurds. One thing that he focuses on is Kurdish unity is very, very important. And he also appointed some of those leaderships like Bret McGurck. He’s a good friend with the Kurds, and he’s back to work in the Middle East and working with the Kurdish organizations. Why is Kurdish unity not easy? There have been instances in which Kurds collaborated, I talk about that in my book, for example, the Kurds collaborated against ISIS. There has been some in-fighting amongst these Kurdish organizations, but not in general, right? We get along I think pretty well as individuals, but as organizations, they are having some issues with each other, either political or other ways. And recently the Kurdish regional government closed the borders to Syria and which harms the humanitarian operation in Northern Syria, according to the UN. These humanitarian efforts assist 1.8 million people making it essential. I’m not sure why they have been closing the border. Again, a political issue is one thing, but this is not a good way of resolving the issues. Also, the KRG is fighting against the Kurdish organizations. We can Kurdish positions and they have gained a lot of power. Now they’re harming that by fighting against one another. And the U.S wants to support the SDF right now, at least, and continue to fight against ISIS and stabilize the region. But at some point, they want to leave, like they left Afghanistan. It seems like right now politically what the U.S. is doing is beneficial for both parties, meaning good for the United States and for Kurds in uniting them. This is really essential for the Kurds and the United States. But as we know if the Biden administration does not win the next election, we will not know what happens to the Kurds. There are always unknowns. And the Kurds have been loyal and reliable allies all these years, leaving them out or just not supporting them. And saying I’m sorry Turkey is my friend I cannot support you because they are angry or frustrated with our relationship. The United States has to kind of find a balance somehow. I don’t know how, but they have to find that they have to say “I cannot leave them out”. Turkey has not been a good friend to the United States, not all the time at least. They turned their back to the United States when they invaded Iraq, they didn’t allow the U.S. Government to use Turkish land for military operations. So I think the United States shouldn’t forget about their friends, and they should just be loyal to the Kurds as well. Thank you. Thank you for listening.
“Does Dr. Deniz thinks that the HDP putting the Kurds at the front of the fight against Erdogan for Turkish democracy is wise, or has it been successful? Do you see any changes within the Turkish opposition toward the Kurds?
Thank you for the questions. the first question, let’s start with that one about HDP policies. Why are they putting the Kurds at the front to fight against democracy or rather fight against the AKP party? I don’t know which time frame you are talking about, but I assume around 2017 . So during that time, I mean as you can remember there were some issues in Syria. The ISIS invasion of Syria happened and Kobani was kind of like in the mist and Kurds were really frustrated and the pro-Kurdish HDP party supported the Syrian fighting. So the party kind of went with the flow, I think, it was a time that everybody felt very strong about nationalism, right? Many of you mentioned that there was an idea of this Kurdish unity, Kurdish being a Kurdish, right. And there was this momentum. So I think it just went with the flow. Also with the election, they didn’t support the presidential candidacy of Erdogan of the AKP party, and that pissed Erdogan off pretty much. And then things start to get really ugly after that. I mean, as we know many Kurdish political officials were arrested including Saladin Deach and others. Later on, things got really bad because the Kurdish mayors were as I mentioned, official mayors had to leave their job, and the AKP party-appointed other people that more closely aligned with their ideas, and now these cities are ruled by a stranger literally. And I believe the HDP party definitely should be able to negotiate with the coalition party and should be able to be part of that coalition. I don’t wanna see a pro-Kurdish party left out and be a single dot. I think it’s essential for the Kurdish party to be part of this coalition. So we will be able to have a say for the future of governance in Turkey.