Washington Kurdish Institute
August 31, 2021
Many correctly argue that Afghanistan is different from Iraq, and that the US will not withdraw from Iraq because of its strategic importance. There are other significant differences between Afghanistan and Iraq, such as their geographies, histories, cultures, and natural resources. However, they also share similarities: corrupt governing bodies, ethnic and religious division, and US interventions. Since the Taliban took over Afghanistan, the discourse among the people, parties, and leaders in Iraq, including in the Kurdistan region, has focused on the future of the US presence. Iraqis, mainly Kurds, fear a repeat of the Afghanistan scenario in Iraq, which will empower Iranian-backed militias and ISIS (Da’esh). As a result, the country will sink further into chaos and the Kurdistan region might face dire consequences given the constant existential threats posed by Baghdad, Ankara, and Tehran.
Since 1991, despite the civil war fought between 1994 and 1997, the Kurdistan region has been the west’s friendliest and most welcoming nation (outside of Israel), mainly toward the US. After the first Gulf War (Desert Storm), the US encouraged the Kurds and the Shias to rise against Saddam Hussien’s dictatorship but left them alone after withdrawing from the Baghdad suburbs. However, due to Hussien’s bloody history – including chemical weapons attacks and genocide against the Kurds – and to maintain a foothold in the region, the US led an international coalition to impose a No-Fly Zone (Operation Provide Comfort) over the majority of the Kurdistan region. After 2003, the region continued to be a safe and secure area for western envoys and international and regional organizations. No US troops suffered casualties in the Kurdistan region, as they had many in the rest of Iraq. However, regional powers like Iran and Turkey always threatened invasions and strived to foster internal Kurdish divisions. The animosity between Kurdistan and Iran, Turkey, Iraq, and Syria is a historic struggle, as Kurdistan was divided into four states through old treaties. Despite their immense differences, these regional states have always allied against Kurdish aspirations for autonomous self-governance. In the past two decades, they have undermined the Kurds and launched war on them on different occasions. For example, the regional powers allied when the Kurds held an independence referendum in Iraq. Simultaneously, Turkey invaded northern Kurdistan under the pretext of fighting the Kurdish freedom movement in Turkey. Further, once Baghdad had established itself, it did not hesitate to impose economic sanctions on the region and attack it militarily using US made weapons.
The reason why these powers fight the Kurds is due to their Kurdishness, they also aim to work against the US and its interests in the Middle East. For example, Turkey prohibited US troops from using the Incirlik Air Base in 2003 before the Iraq war and later threatened to invade the Kurdistan region in 2007. Likewise, Iran calls the Kurdistan region the “new Israel” and has unleashed Iraqi proxies to attack Kurds and US troops based in the region.
Many ask whether the Kurds will protect themselves if the US repeats Afghanistan in Iraq, and the answer is “yes and no.” Based on their recent experience of fighting Da’esh and guerrilla wars historically – though mostly the older generation – Peshmerga forces will be ready to defend their land, especially because of their profound belief in Kurdistan. Additionally, US military training and equipment have contributed much to their ability to defend themselves. However, the final answer would be no, compared to Turkey ,the second-largest NATO, with modern US drone technology, primarily since the Peshmerga forces cannot obtain air defenses. Turkey has about eight times more troops than the Iraqi Kurds. It might appear unrealistic for Turkey to invade Iraqi Kurdistan, but it is already happening as Turkey has an occupying presence 20 miles deep across their border with the region.
Moreover, experts thought Turkey would not invade Syria, but the Kurdish region (Rojava) has suffered ethnic cleansing in multi-military operations since 2018 – and, sadly, the US has allowed the invasions. In fact, the US has consistently sided with the Kurds’ opponents, even when it has meant siding with enemies like Iran. Historically, the US sided with occupiers of Kurdish lands on every occasion when Kurds sought more freedom, including 1946 in Iran, 1974 in Iraq, 2017 in Iraq, and 2018 and 2019 in Syria. Turning in a blind eye or claiming neutrality while Kurdish allies are attacked is akin to siding with their enemies.
Da’esh threats will be more challenging for Iraq, since the US has provided air support for local forces, an effective tactic that resulted in the elimination of the terror group. From Da’esh’s establishment of a “Caliphate” to its physical defeat, the Peshmerga forces protected nearly 600 miles of border with Da’esh.
The other serious challenge facing Iraq, including the Kurds, is the Iranian-backed militias who contributed to the reemergence of Da’esh by abusing the Sunni population after the liberation of their towns and cities. The Iraqis have built military solid forces since 2014 and enjoyed their US equipment, but for many reasons, they will not stand up the Iranian-backed militias because:
- These militias enjoy the support of Iran and share a radical Shia ideology similar to that of Da’esh.
- These militias are recognized as security forces by the Iraqi government.
- The fragile government of Iraq, due to corruption and its partisan approach, makes it easy to collapse.
- Iran established these militias to become parallel forces to military groups like the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
With Iran’s support and US military equipment, these militants will impose a high-level threat to the Kurdistan region (as their recent drone attacks on Erbil demonstrate). Therefore, the Kurds once again will be between a rock and a hard place.
The future of Kurdistan remains unclear due to unclear US policy in the Middle East and Iraq. The Kurds must calculate their future carefully and ensure their safety in the new era. It’s true that the US is only withdrawing combat forces, and they can return any day if the Iraqi government asks for it. Still, it’s also false that the US will only stay in Kurdistan, since US policymakers have made it clear to Kurdish leaders that Kurdistan is a part of Iraq and they will also withdraw from it. There are no signs showing that the US is repeating Afghanistan in Iraq and recently, the US ambassador to Iraq reassured that they won’t. That said, the rising Trumpism among Republicans and the anti-“endless wars” Democrats will indeed reshape US involvement in the coming years.
The Taliban’s takeover has boosted terror groups around the world. It also demoralized many nations and communities about the acceptance of Taliban rule and how a similar situation could occur in their ’hood. But for Kurds and those Iraqis seeking a better life, there is a chance to overcome future terror threats by militias and Da’esh alike.
First, the current US-backed Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al Kadhimi should play a leadership role and implement reforms. As of now, it appears that Kadhimi is a caretaker prime minister. Second, Kadhimi should overcome the issues between Baghdad and Erbil in any capacity he can. For example, the disputed territories and the Kurdistan budget remain unresolved, even though there are laws and constitutional articles about them. These steps will ensure Kurdish support for Kadhimi in the future, and will also strengthen both Baghdad and Erbil’s ties to stand against threats. Equally important is the security cooperation between the two sides, especially in the disputed territories where both Da’esh and Iranian-backed groups are active and pose a threat. The military solution is connected to the political side and outstanding issues. If Kurds do not see the Iraqi government as a threat, then together they will have the upper military hand in the military equilibrium. Further, the international community, mainly the US, will keep supporting these forces as a legitimate, recognized defense of Iraq.
Lastly, it’s vital for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Kurdish parties to pursue the reform plans among the Peshmerga forces and unite them sooner rather than later. Simultaneously, the Kurds should seek help from Europeans who will have a national interest in stopping terror groups from rising in places like France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, etc. Moreover, major Kurdish parties should put their differences aside and unite for the good of Kurdistan’s national security. Additionally, the Kurds can expand their relations with the Arab Gulf States other than diplomatic ones.