Washington Kurdish Institute
By: Giulia Valeria Anderson December 15, 2020
After years of intense relations between the European Union (EU) and the United States, with Joe Biden’s recent victory as 46th President, many EU leaders sighed relief. French President Macron and German Chancellor Merkel, were two of the first world leaders to recognize Biden’s victory, emphasizing the importance of EU-US relations, their historical roots, and their relevance worldwide. However, as many European news agencies and think tanks have underlined, relations may not change as much as many would wish them to.
Europe, Asia, and the United States
Diplomacy will probably have a new central role in EU-US relations, which will help re-build friendly partnerships with those EU leaders who felt discouraged to engage in any correspondence with Donald Trump. There could probably be a reboot on the negotiations about climate change, as Biden openly stated he will re-sign the Paris Agreements, and, following Obama’s footsteps, there could be a push towards increasing each country’s defense budget, mainly concerning NATO. Plus, Biden has always been a strong believer in the Union foresee, especially considering his Irish roots, and has expressed the importance of the EU on many panels, encouraging unity, democracy, and steady relations. This element could have the US push for a renegotiation on Brexit. It could also bring the US closer to the “fight” against those authoritarian regimes who have recently echoed their way through the EU society causing unrests and putting democracy under attack. Moreover, Joe Biden’s victory has served as a demonstration to the EU that democracy can overturn populist ruling governments, who, as the Italian think tank Affari Internazionali emphasized, saw in Trump a reason to be and look up to. However, populist governments, as well as the trumpist wave that has built its way through the American and European society, will probably not end with a democratic victory, but will probably stay undefeated notwithstanding the efforts.
There is a proverb in political science which reads “the Atlantic Ocean is getting wider whereas the Pacific Ocean tighter”. This saying does not only recall the environmental challenges the world faces but emphasizes the shift in the US’s main exporting partners in the last decade. In fact, after years of strong relations with the EU, the US has slowly been getting closer with many Eastern countries, forcing the EU to find support in other partners and tie new trade agreements. Moreover, as the US has been getting closer to the East, it has also intensified its relations with China, imposing sanctions and considering it an “enemy” from various standpoints. This has caused a backslash for the US’s EU allies, who indirectly felt the consequences of the tariffs imposed by the US on China, as China has become a big EU trading partner.
EU-US and the Middle East
One last important factor to consider when discussing new EU-US relations under Biden, is the US’s role in the Middle East. In fact, the EU has been deeply suffering from the absence of a US presence in the region. Turkey has been blackmailing the EU with refugees, aware of its saturated asylum system, and has kept safeguarding its interests only; Libya and Egypt have been playing a power-politics game, taking advantage of the fact that the EU does not have a unified foreign policy agenda; and last, Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq have witnessed the retreat of thousands of US militaries leaving NATO deployments and other armies alone. This last factor has been of extreme importance during Biden’s campaign as a running nominee, as the democratic party has asked the Trump administration for clarification of these actions many times and unsuccessfully. In Afghanistan, there has been news of alleged Russian bounties on US soldiers, and investigations were never presented to the US Senate, Congress, or international community. In Syria, the US betrayed their strongest allies on the field, the Kurds, notwithstanding the many requests to withhold this action and the following disappointment in Congress. Whereas in Iraq, the US used their territory to kill the Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, endangering relations between Baghdad and Washington. The elected-Biden administration has announced their will to follow-up on these events and decide, if possible, to revert the created case scenario – for example, open an investigation in Afghanistan. Not as hypothetical as the above-mentioned actions are Biden’s announcement to re-negotiate the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran. The Nuclear Deal has been one of the most important agreements of the past decade, and one of the main achievements of the Obama administration, which Joe Biden worked on closely. For this reason, Biden has decided to re-negotiate – as Iran furthered new requests – and introduce the bill once again.
Most certainly the US has played a fundamental role for the EU in relations with the Middle East. However, the Biden administration might not be the solution EU leaders have been waiting for since his election. The new president-elect may initially focus on domestic aspects of its administration, on Asia, and maybe on its trade deals with the EU. The Middle East, which is considered an urgent matter for the EU, might not be Biden’s first foreign intervention. Many European newspapers, as Il Corriere della Sera, have described the wave of serenity right after Biden’s election as an illusion, underlined how the EU should not think of what the US can do for the EU, but what the EU should do for itself. Contrarily, Euronews kept a positive attitude, emphasizing how this is a new political opportunity for the EU especially in terms of cooperation. Concluding, one may only speculate on the future of US-EU relations and these may affect the decision-making process of both the EU and the US in Middle East, as well as in other regions of the continent. One sure aspect, is that the Biden administration will try to succeed where Donald Trump failed, meaning it will safeguard democracy, diplomacy, and friendly relations between states.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and positions expressed by authors and contributors do not necessary reflect those of the WKI.