Wladimir Van Wilgenburg
Compression in between the Peshmerga forces and the SDF
“There are 160,000 Peshmerga forces with 40,000 unified brigades, and then there’s 120,000 non-unified groups of the PUK and the KDP. The front lines, although there were unified brigades on the front lines, like the commanders were always either KDP or PUK. So in general, this worked quite well because the frontlines were quite well divided but in the end the promises of the PUK and the KDP to unite their forces since 1992 didn’t work out and in practice, you always had this sort of KDP yellow zone and PUK green zone from the time of the civil war, basically.
Then if you come to the YPG, the YPG was basically created in 2011/ 2012. In the past Syrian Kurds have experienced fighting with the PKK against the Turkish state or with Mullah Mustafa [Barzani] against the Iraqi state. But there was never really a fighting force inside Rojava or Northern Syria itself that was fighting against the Syrian stateThere were of course Syrian Kurds that were part of the Syrian army, but there was not a lot of experience. For instance, their neighboring Iraqi Kurds had, or the Turkish Kurds had in an armed insurgency against the state. The YPG in 2012 took control over several Kurdish enclaves in Northern Syria and actually they were quite effective in creating local alliances. They worked with other local Arab and Christian groups in the area. And by 2013, they already controlled a quiet large area and controlled most of the Kurdish enclaves on the border.
The YPG or the SDF became the main ally for the US against ISIS, because the Syrian rebels had ties with extremist groups. They were working together with ISIS and Al Nusra fighting against Assad. And they were also not able to basically prevent US trained forces from having their weapons, supplies stolen by Al-Qaeda. And also in 2014, they lost a lot of territory to ISIS, and it was always an issue that the Syrian opposition, even for instance, in 2012, when the US wanted to list Al Nusra as a terrorist group, Syrian opposition actually protested against this. And for instance, Salim Adris who is now the head of a Turkish backed defense ministry of the Syrian opposition, he at the time said Al Nusra are not really terrorists to us. So there was always this problem for the US, that with the Syrian Arab rebels were working with Jihadist groups, and they were more focused on fighting Assad while the YPG was very much willing to fight just ISIS. “
“So in the SDF around 60% of the fighting forces are Arabs. First of all, you have independent Arab groups in the SDF that allied with the YPG, for instance, Jayesh al Thwar and other groups in Hasakah like Sanadid forces and then you have multi ethic military councils, and you also have a Syriac and Assyrian forces. And then you also have conscripts, which is very different from the Peshmerga because in Iraqi Kurdistan, there was never a conscript force. Dr. Najmaldim Karim mentioned this before that maybe by putting conscription in Kurdistan you could maybe unite the Peshmerga forces more because you create immediately a united force, but the SDF, they did this from the beginning since 2014.”
“To talk about the SDF military system, it’s very different from Peshmerga. So you don’t have a separate political party militia in that sense that is like dividing 50 50 between two parties. The SDF is led by General Mazloum and Newrouz and they have an SDF military council that meets from time to time, which includes several forces, including also Sanadid forces, Syriac Military Council and other groups. The SDF has around 30 brigates, around 30,000 forces. This also includes SDF commandos and YPG Counter Terrorism Forces. Then you have the conscripts, which are around 30,000 fighters. Then you also have internal security forces: Asayesh forces, Heza anti-terror, traffic police, which is around 30,000.”
“The goal of the YPG actually was to unite the Kurdish Cantons of Afrin, Kobani and in the Hasakah province through basically controlling the areas around Tal Abya [Giri Spi], Jarablus,and Al Bab. For the Peshmerga, the goal was basically as Dr. Najmaldin Karim mentioned to basically defend areas like Kirkuk and traditional provinces of Erbil, Duhok, and Sulaymaniyah. But also like areas like Sinjar and Kirkuk. So the Peshmerga were mostly interested in defending Kurdish territories while the SDF was actually interested or from the beginning to basically also control multiethnic, non Kurdish areas to basically make like a viable border strip and to create like a non-ethnic administration there.”
“The Peshmerga are mainly a Kurdish force. It’s Peshmerga, it is the Kurdish force. I mean, there were some Arabs even the Peshmerga forces, but it’s very different from the SDF that had around 60% forces that are actually Arabic and also the SDF never had any problems in fighting Arab majority cities while the Peshmerga, they didn’t want to get involved in Mosul, in the battle for city of Mosul.”
“The bigger challenge I think for the SDF is that they are not recognized. There could always be another attack by Turkey. The US will not defend them, and others they have is also that the regime could pressure them more and force them to integrate in Syria Arab army. “
“For the Peshmerga, I think the major challenge is that they have disunity, and after October, 2017, they showed that basically their presence in the disputed territories is not always supported internationally and they lost 40% of their areas. And they still have this problem of disunity. And also there’s always a problem in Iraqi Kurdistan about corruption, which is also affecting the Peshmerga forces.”
“The SDF offered the Syrian regime. They said, if you recognize our self-administration system and SDF as a separate force, then we could easily integrate around 30,000 SDF fighters into the Syrian Arab Army but as a separate issue. So it will be somehow similar to what you have in Iraq. You have Iraqi army and you have the Peshmerga. But the problem is that Assad is not willing to make concessions because Assad is basically waiting how the conflict will go. He has the support of Russia. I think despite the sanctions, that regime is not willing to make any concessions. And then of course you have the threat of Turkey. Turkey is still threatening to attack the SDF more. “
“I think the US should, if they should think about their own interest, if Turkey would push in again into Northern Syria, and if the U S allows that to happen, then basically the Iranians and the Russians and the regime will move into Deir Ez Zor because the SDF will be quite weakened. And then the US will be forced to leave Northern Syria. So it will empower both the regime, but also empower extremest forces among Turkish backed forces. We don’t talk a lot about that but Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi was killed very close to the Turkish border. Also the ISIS spokesperson was killed in an area controlled by Turkey. And there are still a number of ISIS, former or current leaders that are being recently bombed in drone attacks. So they are not doing much against ISIS.”