November 20, 2019
Panel discussion: Repairing the Damage: The future of U.S. relations with Syrian Kurdish partners and the fight against ISIS
Dr Karim, thank you for the kind invitation and the introduction. It’s a great pleasure to be speaking here today and also thank you for making the space for a Turkish voice at a Kurdish panel. Since we are used to seeing a lot of Turkish panels in D.C. Without a Kurdish voice. I think this sets a good example. Now, my task has been, I’ve been asked to give you a brief overview of the Turkish side of the saga. Because we have heard a lot about what’s happening in the Syrian theater of action, but equally important is what’s happening in the Turkish theater of action. Now, there are two sides to the story within official discourse and when you read Turkey’s media, which is owned and controlled by Erdogan up to 95% you hear a single voice that this is an existential threat that’s dealt through security measures.
So what is the existential threat? the official discourse is the SDF is basically a fig leaf for the YPG, and the YPG is a fig leaf for the PKK and hence Turkey state can not tolerate PKK’s presence on its southern border. There is another side of the story, and that’s what I call the hidden transcript that we must pay attention to, and that’s as much is Turkey’s war, it is Erdogan’s war. And Erdogan’s war the story is much more complicated. Let me tell you why at this very time, if you go back to October 8th. Why Erdogan was in a difficult position and had to act. Those of you who follow Turkish politics might remember the corruption probe of December, 2013. This is when all of Turkey woke up to a scandal showing that Erdogan’s ministers were on the payroll of Iran and they were helping Iran evade US sanctions through Turkey’s second largest public lender, Hulk bank, to the tune of $20 billion or more, and tens of millions of dollars, if not hundreds of millions of dollars were paid as bribes to members of the Turkish government. Back then Erdgoan’s job approval rating fell, meaning those who do not approve Erdogan’s job rating was up to 47 percent. So almost half of Turkey was against him. In the run up to the October cross-border operation those who opposed Erdogan’s job performance was as high as 46 percent. Meaning Erdogan was was in an equally difficult position compared to the December, 2013 graft-probe.
Meaning he was in a very difficult position. Why you might wonder, for three reasons. One, he lost local elections, not once, but twice. First in March, then in Istanbul rerun in June. And as of June, Erdogan lost control of two thirds of Turkey’s GDP to the opposition and half of the population to the opposition. And for the first time since Erdogan rise to power in 2002, there was a winning block that’s brought right and left, secular and religious Turks and Kurds and of course the kingmakers were the popular HDP. So that was Erdogan’s first existential threat. This is not Turkey’s existential threat. This is Erdogan’s existential threat. The second existential threat was that two of Erdogan’s very close allies, aids, colleagues, one, the former Prime Minister [Ahmet] Davutoglu, the other one, the economic miracle, Deputy Prime Minister, Ali Babacan were on their way to set up two splinter parties, attracting more and more members of the AKP [Party of Justice and Development] to their rights ranks. To make matters worse, former President Abdullah Gul was also providing his support to Ali babacan’s party. Just to tell you how severe crisis this is, within the last year, Erdogan lost almost one million members of the AKP. When he was asked about it, he said, “Oh, these are just the old members dying off. ” So unless all the AKP’s members are suddenly dying, there seems to be a serious Exodus from the AKP and that was Erdogan’s second problem. The third one hits very close at home. Erdogan’s third existential problem is that the economy which is drawn by, no other than his son-in-law Berat Albayrak who is Turkey’s minister of finance and treasury has brought Turkey to its worst economic crisis in decades. Hence Erdogan had an urgent need to divert the electorates attention away from the economic crisis at home caused by his own mismanagement and waste as well as the mismanagement and corruption of his son-in-law. Getting into these existential and personal problems Erdogan who I still argue is one of the most cutting politicians ever in the Turkish political history, has managed to convince the Turkish public that’s his existential problem is actually a national existential problem about the PKK in Syria. So when we take a look at the polls to see whether Erdogan has succeeded, I would say unfortunately, yes. In the polls, when asked about the Syria operation, 79 percent of Turkish public have approved the operation. Those who oppose it or who are indifferent are only at 21percent. Now what does this tell us? given Erdogan today, enjoys less than 50 percent support together with his far-right ultra nationalist allies, the MHP [Nationalist Movement Party], it means that he managed to convince more than 20% of the opposition to back the military incursion into Northeastern Syria, which gives us with the remaining 21% which one might argue is maybe 12percent the point is the Pro-Kurdish HDP and roughly nine percentage point is the center lift, the CHP[Republican People’s Party]. Which shows are the one in a brilliant manage has not only undermined the winning coalition block, but he has also split the main opposition the CHP right at the center. You know the CHP has historically been the site of an ongoing struggle between the more liberal pluralist inclusive wing and the more nationalist liberal wing. And hence this crisis has also split the party right at the center. And again, so for Erdogan this was multiple wins in one. I know our time is limited. I will very quickly try to end with a word of hope that this is not Turkey’s destiny. This is not Syria’s northeast destiny, that this is not the destiny of the Kurds, but there is another way forward. Just to be provocative enough because if I speak to you as a believer in the Kurdish peace process, you will say, well, you know what, you are a minority within Turkey.
You are a minority within the ranks of the CHP. So why should we take you seriously? So let me try to convince you by rebutting Erdogan’s points with someone very influential by Erdogan himself. I will use a youngerErdogan to go against Erdgoan’s current talking points. Let me give you three examples, of all the leaders in Turkey Erdogan was the first one who took the risk to start the Kurdish peace process and to initiate talks with the PKK. I was one of the 111 opposition politicians who signed what was back then called hundred 11 signatures for peace. We opposed Erdogan on almost every single policy issue, but we argued that this is the right step. Again, I was very vocal. I said, we’re doing this wrong. It will fail because this is not the way, this is not the proper way to run a peace process, but nevertheless, it’s a brave moment.
It’s a brave move and we should support it. The second issue again of all the Turkish political leaders, it was Erdogan who transformed Turkish thinking about the Kurdistan regional government. To this day in the Turkish media, you will read a lot of insults concerning Iraqi Kurds. That they are bandits, they’re rebels, they’re barbarians, like really racist slurs. But it was Erdgoan who showed Turks and Kurds in Turkey that the KRG could be a good neighbor. Could be a great trade partner and could be a security net, security provider for Turkey. And again, Erdogan deserves credit for that. And third, which many people have missed. But back in February, 2015 when Turkey was worried about the tomb of Sulayman Shah, the founder of the Ottoman empire. It was thanks to a collaboration between the Turkish military and intelligence and the YPG that the operation was a success. And I’ve always argued when Turks and Syrian Kurds joint hands, there was only one loser, it was ISIS, the Islamic state. Now the sad part of the story is the three Erdogan’s I just presented to you, had he tried to do these again today? He would be jailed by the current Erdogan but nevertheless, I think we should still be inspired by that earlier Erdogan who like a broken clock showed the right time twice a day in this case three times by taking the right moves when it comes to the Kurdish question. So it is my hope that Turkish citizens across the political spectrum will begin to see that the real threat, the real existential threat to Turkish democracy to Turkish people the Islamic State, is the Islamist proxies Turkey currently works with, is the authoritarian regime at home and not Kurds in Iran, Iraq, Syria or Turkey. I believe together we can build an inclusive, pluralistic, Middle East, and it is, I think, crucial that Turks and Kurds learn to work together to defeat all sorts of extremism and bigotry in the region. Thank you.