Washington Kurdish Institute
November 12, 2019
The Trump Administration’s decision to pull US troops from northeastern Syria and green-light Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s invasion of the region has drastically changed the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
Who are the losers?
The US and the Kurds, especially Syrian Kurds, are the biggest losers from the Trump Administration’s October 6 decision.
When the Syrian Kurds were attacked by ISIS (Da’esh) in Kobane, they resisted but were unable to secure victory in the face of the terror group’s superior resources, inventive tactics, and American weapons seized from the Iraqi military. They needed more than old AK-47s to counter the Da’esh hordes and their up-armored suicide car bombs. Assistance eventually came from the US, as the latter was seeking a reliable partner with which to face the Da’esh Caliphate that had absorbed 40 percent of Iraq and 25 percent of Syria. The US-led coalition’s partnership with the People’s Defense Units (YPG) led to a decisive defeat of Da’esh at Kobane and the first major halt of the organization’s expansion. Likewise, the US decision to back the YPG followed the Obama Administration’s failed efforts to forge the Free Syrian Army (FSA) into a reliable partner in the fight against Da’esh, efforts which cost around 500 million dollars and inadvertently resulted in US equipment and weaponry ending up in the hands of Da’esh and al Qa’ida linked groups.
The US-YPG partnership eventually resulted in the creation of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in 2015. The SDF, which was led by Kurdish fighters and included Arabs and Assyrian Christians, went on to defeat the Da’esh Caliphate with US support in March 2019. In those four years, the Kurds, at the request of the US, fought for territory of which 70 percent was non-Kurdish. For instance, cities like Manbij and Raqqa, despite having Kurdish populations and suffering from Arabization, were not part of the Kurdish region. Additionally, Baghouz, Da’esh’s last Syrian stronghold which fell on March 23, 2019, is almost exclusively Sunni Arab. The SDF paid a heavy price for its participation in the fight against Da’esh, with over 11,000 of its personnel killed and around another 22,000 wounded. The majority of SDF casualties were Kurds, though a sizeable number of Arabs within the SDF ranks were also killed or wounded during the anti-Da’esh campaign. Granted, the SDF’s cooperation with the US also encouraged increased collaboration among the Kurds’ usual enemies in the Turkish government, Assad regime, and Iranians. Even Russia adjusted its position when the Kurds decided to continue partnering with the US against Da’esh. Northeastern Syria’s Kurds now face ethnic cleansing at the hands of the Erdogan regime while the region’s other players remain on the sidelines or supportive of Turkey’s campaign.
As stated previously, America has also lost much due to the Trump Administration’s October 6 decision. The SDF, which the US spent billions of dollars supporting, equipping, training, and forging into a capable, multi-ethnic force which precluded the introduction of thousands of US troops to secure Da’esh’s defeat in Syria, now finds its very existence threatened. Despite the recent decision to keep some US troops in northeastern Syria to ostensibly protect the region’s oil, unless the Erdogan regime’s aggression is stopped, the continuing casualties suffered by the SDF and its increasing diversion of forces to counter the Turkish invasion significantly weaken its ability to continue the fight against Da’esh and al Qa’ida-linked groups. Concurrently, the US’s loss of influence in the region has benefited Russia, Iran, and the Assad regime.
Erdogan’s “safe zone” is a terror zone in reality
Erdogan’s “safe zone” is not about Turkey’s “concerns” regarding Kurdish terrorism. In fact, this “zone” is a continuation of efforts to prevent the emergence of a Kurdish political entity in Syria that began with the Russian-backed 2018 occupation of Afrin, though control of northeastern Syria’s petroleum resources and pipelines has also remained an interest of the Erdogan regime. Operation Peace Spring cut the Kurdish region into three, unconnected regions, while Erdogan’s “safe zone” is occupied by Turkish-backed Syrian jihadists whose ranks include former members of Da’esh and al Qa’ida-linked groups. Turkey’s jihadist proxies have consistently shown themselves to be filled with hatred and bloodlust and have committed numerous war crimes against the region’s Kurdish population and acts of sectarian violence against Christians and Muslims of differing sects. Likewise, these Turkish proxies have engaged in numerous criminal activities, including looting olive oil factories and Kurdish markets in Afrin, extorting local residents, and kidnapping Kurds for ransom. The existence of multiple jihadist organizations whose ranks are filled with unstable, violent individuals has also led to numerous instances of infighting among the groups over control of the region’s various criminal rackets. Of course, the situation in Turkey’s “safe zone” AKA “terror zone” is also likely to affect Europe’s stability, as many Turkish-backed groups, in addition to being committed to ideologies which endorse violence and Islamist supremacy, maintain cells and networks in Turkey and various European countries that could facilitate terrorist attacks. Additionally, the Erdogan regime is likely to use captured Da’esh fighters as bargaining chips in negotiating concessions from Europe and the United States.
Why are all Kurdish parties against the Turkish invasion?
Like many of the world’s peoples, the Kurds are divided among different political parties and claim a homeland that has been divided across Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey. That said, Kurdish parties in all four nations have united against the Turkish invasion, as Kurds now realize Erdogan subscribes to a radical doctrine which seeks to erase Kurdish ambitions and culture not only in Syria, but in Iraq and Iran as is being done in Turkey. Since 2015, Erdogan has jailed thousands of Kurds domestically and launched a war in Turkey’s Kurdish region, which has killed hundreds of Kurds and displaced thousands more. Also, in October 2019, Erdogan removed 15 elected Kurdish mayors and replaced them with government-approved trustees. Likewise, despite Turkey’s trade relationship with Iraqi Kurdistan, Erdogan came out as one of the 2017 Kurdish independence referendum’s most vociferous opponents. In May 2019, Erdogan launched a hidden war against the Kurdish region by deploying thousands of Turkish troops into the Kurdistan region under the pretext of fighting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Finally, Iran’s Kurdish parties united to protest Turkey’s invasion of northeastern Syria and the Erdogan regime’s increasingly friendly ties with the oppressive Iranian regime.
Kurds united America
Millions of Americans opposed the Erdogan regime’s invasion of northeastern Syria and the ethnic cleansing perpetrated against the region’s Kurds and other minorities. Americans from all backgrounds and political persuasions, including many Trump supporters, voiced their concerns and demanded Turkey stop its incursion into Syria. For the Kurds, America’s support was further proven when the House of Representatives passed H.R.4695 and H.J.Res.77, both of which express opposition to Turkey’s invasion and occupation of northeastern Syria.