Washington Kurdish Institute
October 1 2019
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly threatened to invade the Kurdish region of Syria. Erdogan’s hostile approach to the Kurds markedly intensified when he ended the peace process with representatives of the Kurds of Turkey in July 2015. His belligerent approach has many underlying factors, including his desire to retain and expand his already strengthened grip on power, and his ideological beliefs, and history. The Kurds had suffered massacres and large-scale destruction of their ancestral homeland under Erdogan as well as previous Turkish leaders. During Erdogan’s reign, the Turkish state has also intensely attacked the Kurds beyond Turkey’s borders, using airpower and ground forces against Kurds in Iraq and Syria as well as harsh economic measures aimed at punishing these Kurdish populations.
The most recent and brutal campaign of aggression by the Turkish military took place in the Afrin region in western Syria. The Turkish military’s attack and invasion of Afrin, which took place as the eyes of the international community were on Syria and just as the Kurds and their allies were concluding their victorious campaign against the Islamic State (ISIS) terrorist group, was coordinated by the Turkish state with various jihadist groups, and killed hundreds of Kurdish civilians and displaced thousands. At present, the Turkish military and their jihadist proxy groups occupy Afrin and work together to suppress and eliminate the region’s Kurdish identity, and they commit unchecked violations of the human rights of the local population. The Kurds of Syria primarily blame Russia for allowing the invasion of Afrin to occur since Russia allowed Turkey to use the Syrian airspace in and around the region during their campaign, as airspace in western Syria is under de facto Russian control.
Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war and the rise of ISIS in both Syria and Iraq, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have proven themselves to be the most dependable and effective ally of the US-led Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. The SDF was formed to include the Kurdish armed forces that had been successfully fighting ISIS in northern Syria (i.e., the People’s Protection Units – YPG and the Women’s Protection Units – YPJ) along with Arab, Christian and other armed groups to defeat ISIS in the Northern and Eastern of Syria in cooperation with support from the US-led coalition. As the SDF gradually liberated more land from ISIS and other jihadist groups in these regions of Syria, the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), a related political entity, worked with representatives of the local population to establish the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), a multi-ethnic, multi-religious authority that currently governs approximately 30% of Syria’s territory.
Turkey’s threats against the SDF have put the US and Turkey at odds once again. The US and others fear that a Turkish attack on the most effective opponents of ISIS will rejuvenate the ISIS in Syria and also empower the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad and Iranian-backed groups allied with the Syrian regime. Naturally, the Syrian Kurds, who have been loyal partners of the US and the coalition for years hope that the US, who currently control the skies over Northern and Eastern Syria, will not abandon them to the Turkish military and their jihadist allies.
The US have been conducting talks with Turkey concerning Syria for almost a year, and these talks have resulted in an arrangement dubbed the “security mechanism” which calls for joint US-Turkish military patrols on the Syrian side of the Turkey-Syria border. Erdogan, however, has made no secret that this arrangement does not satisfy him – he and his regime have repeatedly discussed plans for the establishment of what they call a “safe zone”, which would be a zone of Turkish occupation stretching from the border to deep within Northern and Eastern Syria, and would by definition include many major Kurdish population centers. Turkey has stated their desire to settle millions of predominantly Arab refugees from other parts of Syria in this region, with the clear aim of radically changing the demographics of the Kurdish region of Syria, decreasing Kurdish presence in their homeland and suppressing expression of Kurdish identity. The conduct of Turkey’s military and civilian forces and their jihadist allies in Afrin makes their plans for a so-called safe zone very clear. As in Afrin, a Turkish invasion and occupation of other majority Kurdish areas in Syria would harshly affect not only Kurds, but minority ethnic and religious communities including Christians, who would surely be intimidated and mistreated by the Turkish military and jihadist forces. Indeed, this so-called safe zone will surely result in another round of large-scale displacement of civilians in Syria.
During their visit to the US, two senior officials of the AANES were hosted by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) and discussed the situation in the region.
Ongoing Turkish threats distract from rebuilding
Ilham Ahmed
“After we eliminated ISIS as a territory-holding entity, we hoped to enter a new era of stability. However, we were also aware that ISIS sleeper cells would become a threat to the stability of the region. We have continued to fight against those sleeper cells and definitively remove them from the area,” said Ilham Ahmed, the Co-Chair of the Executive Council of the SDC. Since elimination of the so-called caliphate of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, the terror group has begun activating sleeper cells to attack civilians and military personnel in the region, a tactic used by al-Qaida for a decade in Iraq. “I do not consider the removal of terrorists from the region as a purely military operation –it also has the ideological aspect. Therefore, a focus on both fronts, military and ideological, is imperative to defeat terrorism,” Ahmed added. She also blamed the Turkish threats of invasion for interfering in efforts to bring greater stability to the region. Ahmed said, “These threats of invasion are distracting us and our security forces from continuing the fight against terrorism. [Due to these threats], we are obligated to mobilize more forces near the border with Turkey to repel any possible attack.”
Ahmed praised the recent talks between the US and Turkey aimed at preventing the latter from attacking the region, saying, “However, the negotiations that were initiated by the US between us and Turkey to agree on a security mechanism has had good results to some extent. It had stopped the Turkish attack on us as we have withdrawn our forces 5 km from the border and handed over the security responsibility to a local force. We have also withdrawn heavy weapons 20 km from the borders with Turkey and eliminated trenches alongside the border.”
During the recent meeting of the United Nations General Assembly, Erdogan showcased his plans to send the Syrian refugees currently in Turkey to the Kurdish region – using his time on the international stage to announce his plans to change the demographics of Northern and Eastern Syria in unambiguous terms. He also threatened Europe, stating that he will release the refugees to Europe if they do not cooperate economically and otherwise with Turkey.
“Turkey is using the refugee card against western countries. The world knows when Turkey talks about the safe zone how it will be. Look at Afrin! At present there are daily killings, torture and forced displacement of the Kurds in Afrin, which is now under the occupation of Turkish forces and groups backed by Turkey. This is the type of ‘safe zone’ that Turkey is trying to implement. It would result in Turkification and demographic change of our area.” Ahmed, who is originally from Afrin, continued her remarks about the situation there under Turkey’s occupation: “In the region of Afrin, there are tens of thousands of displaced Kurds who are now located about 10 km outside Afrin, away from their homes, who have been prevented by Turkey from returning. These internally displaced Syrian Kurds are also prevented from receiving any humanitarian aid as no humanitarian organization is allowed to reach them due to the restrictions enforced by Syria’s regime. Thus, the displaced people of Afrin continue to suffer from various types of persecution. Additionally, others in Afrin are continuously forced to leave their homes,” she added.
The current arrangement, known as the security mechanism, is not enough for Turkey, explained Ahmed, who said that Turkey’s demands are increasing. “The Turkish state is also imposing other conditions on the safe zone. Turkey has been demanding to use the region’s airspace. Turkey is also demanding the joint US-Turkish patrols reach up to 30 km into Syrian territory. After 5 km depth, the joint patrol would reach the positions of the People’s Protection Units (YPG) raising the possibility that Turkey will then initiate conflicts. Turkey’s potential use of the region’s airspace would be a threat to both us and American military personnel in the region. Instead of meeting Turkey’s additional demands and conditions, there must be other approaches to find a solution, like improving the dialogue between us and Turkey to achieve final resolution for the security in the border regions,” she said.
The Syrian regime’s goals and the economic challenges
Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad is aware of the success of the AANES in administering the region, and has its eyes on attempting to retake Northern and Eastern Syria along with other areas currently outside of the authoritarian Syrian regime’s control. The Syrian regime uses various tools to destabilize the area, Ahmed explained. “Another challenge we are facing stems from the actions of the Syrian regime. The regime is trying to recruit people from the region, create sleeper cells, and use them to attack our areas. After anti-terrorism operations in Hasakah and Deir az-Zour by our forces, it was proved that the Syrian regime was backing certain terrorist elements,” said Ahmed.
After the defeat of ISIS caliphate, areas in Deir Ez-Zour, Raqqa, and elsewhere were left in ruins, and there is an urgent need to rebuild them following years of intense war. Unfortunately, the abilities of the AANES to rebuild liberated areas are severely constrained – the Autonomous Administration is not recognized internationally and, as part of Syria, the region governed by the AANES is subject to many international sanctions as well as economic pressure from its neighbors in the region.
“Right now it is essential to rebuild the infrastructure of the region after its destruction by ISIS. The local peoples need to engage economically in agriculture and industry to survive. However, US sanctions on Syria have negatively affected these people. This is another one of the challenges we face,” Ahmed explained. She also asks for a sanctions waiver for their region: “We ask the Americans to find solutions or construct an alternative to the sanctions, for example, opening up the border crossings.”
The fate of ISIS captives remains unclear
In the face of constant security threats and economic pressure, the AANES is also coping with another significant challenge following the defeat of the ISIS caliphate. During the war against ISIS, the SDF facilitated the evacuation of civilians from ISIS territory and took great care to process surrendering ISIS fighters and their family members in keeping with human rights conventions and the laws of war. As a result, there are thousands of ISIS fighters and their families currently being held by the institutions of the AANES, including the SDF. These captives include Syrians, Iraqis, and citizens of countries all over the world who travelled to the region to join ISIS. Most of these captives are held in the al-Hawl camp, which was originally designed to host internally displaced people.
The al-Hawl camp today, now filled with ISIS captives, has the potential to become a miniature “caliphate” itself. Wives of ISIS fighters, some of whom were active in security institutions of the terrorist group, work to enforce the rules that ISIS imposed on Syrians and Iraqis for years, and children are still being indoctrinated to praise the group and its aims. On many occasions, these female ISIS members have attacked SDF personal trying to maintain security in and around the camp, and some continue to act as enforcers within the camp, threatening, harming, and even killing other camp residents. The al-Hawl camp has become a major security dilemma not only for the region but for the international community as well due to the presence of many foreigners, as well as children born to these foreign members of the terrorist group. The AANES has repeatedly requested assistance in dealing with this camp, and have asked the home countries of foreign ISIS members to take these people back to their countries along with any children or other family members.
As the AANES is not an internationally-recognized governmental entity, the Autonomous Administration is severely lacking in options with respect to dealing with the large and dangerous population of the al-Hawl camp and the numerous other ISIS captives in the region’s various prisons and detention facilities. Ahmed explained, “There are a significant number of ISIS captive in our prisons. The prisons are unfit and not properly equipped. There is an urgent need to establish courts with international recognition to try these terrorists. As the international coalition was established to counter ISIS terrorism, the same countries could put them on trial. A joint local and international court could be formed. It also makes sense to try these terrorists in our region since we have evidence of and witnesses to their involvement in terrorism. If they are found guilty, after they are sentenced, their countries of origins can take them back or they can serve their sentences in our region.” It bears mention that the AANES does not use the death penalty.
With respect to the al-Hawl camp, Ahmed warns about a new generation of ISIS growing up inside the camp, she said, “The al-Hawl camp is a big challenge for us. About 70,000 people reside in the camp, some of whom are the families of foreign ISIS fighters. The camp also holds a significant number of children of ISIS fighters, and these children have been raised as the next generation of ISIS. We have requested that foreign countries take back their citizens, but only a few states took back some of the orphaned children of ISIS fighters. There are daily riots and tent burnings in the camp. Sometimes there are networks of smugglers trying to smuggle certain people out. When such plots are discovered by our security forces, they start a riot.”
Syria’s Christians: A historic indigenous people fearing Turkish invasion
Elizabeth Gawryie
Syria is a diverse country with a rich history, and has hosted many civilizations and empires. Northern and Eastern Syria is home not only to Kurds and Arabs, but also a number of indigenous ethnic groups who were among the first in history to embrace Christianity. These groups, who variously define themselves as Syriacs, Assyrians, and Chaldeans, lived in the region long before the establishment of Christianity, and faced many waves of persecution and survived massacres at the hands of the Ottoman Empire. With this history in mind, they reject any further interference by the Turkish state in the affairs of Northern and Eastern Syria.
Elizabeth Gawryie, Deputy Chairperson of the Executive Council of the Autonomous Administration and a member of the Syriac Union Party, discussed the situation of the region’s Christians and their concerns. She Said, “As a Syriac Christian woman, I would like to address other challenges we suffer. In order to live and coexist in our homeland, there must be a democratic governing system that recognizes us. We have seen such a system in the self-administration of the AANES, which has acknowledged us after great sacrifices throughout many centuries of oppression against my people. If you all want to protect and maintain the Christian population in the Middle East and specifically in Syria, you must protect the Autonomous Administration. We have become the minority in the region due to policies of systematic oppression targeting us, including massacres committed against our people. The governing systems in the Middle East are based on dictatorship and chauvinism, built on concepts of religious supremacy and nationalism which exclude and subjugate minority groups.”
Sharing geography and goals, the Christians and Kurds, along with other peoples of the region, form a united front against invaders. Representing these peoples’ interest and keeping them safe requires their participation in internationally-led initiatives concerning the future of Syria, including planned discussions of a recently announced constitutional committee, the establishment of which has been praised by UN Secretary-General António Guterres as “the beginning of the political path out of the tragedy towards a solution”. It seems that this committee, like other international efforts such as the Geneva peace talks on Syria in 2017 and the Astana talks that followed, exclude any representation of Northern and Eastern Syria, in effect silencing the voices of this region’s indigenous peoples, including the Kurds and imperiled Christian communities.
The Syrian constitutional committee is to include 150 participants, 50 of whom have been selected by the Syrian regime, 50 selected by a coalition of predominantly Arab opposition groups including several jihadist groups, and another 50 selected by the UN. However, representatives of the AANES, which currently governs approximately 30% of Syria’s territory, are excluded. This has disappointed and alarmed Gawryie, who explained, “There was an announcement by the United Nations for the formation of the Syrian constitutional committee to draft a new Syrian constitution. We have been excluded from this committee. We are the ones who fought ISIS and sacrificed 11,000 fighters. 22,000 more were wounded. After years of the Syrian revolution and its complications, the committee only includes the Syrian regime and selected opposition groups. This committee is by no means representative of the entirety of Syria’s population. The formation of this committee is a result of the Astana talks between Russia, Turkey, and Iran which were organized to counter the US and UN-backed Geneva peace talks. We are astonished and do not understand how the US can accept this.”
Through great sacrifice, the peoples of Northern and Eastern Syria have achieved so much over the last few years – defeating the so-called caliphate of ISIS that once threatened global security, and establishing institutions of self-administration that give a voice to all peoples of the region, providing a stark contrast to the brutal authoritarian regimes that are unfortunately common to the region. Now, in front the eyes of the international community, the world powers are hesitant to provide the peoples of Northern and Eastern Syria with a say in their future, and once again imminent Turkish military aggression threatens to eliminate these great achievements. Now is the time for the US and the international community and all who benefited from the sacrifices of the peoples of this region to speak up on their behalf. It would be a great betrayal of humanity to remain silent in the face of an impending massacre the survivors of the atrocities perpetrated by ISIS as well as the heroes of the war against ISIS. Ilham Ahmed and Elizabeth Gawryie, on behalf of these people, are asking for the US and the international community to take a stand before it is too late.