Washington Kurdish Institute
April 23, 2019
The Syrian Democratic Forces, which the U.S. helped to form and continue to support, have effectively ended all territorial control by ISIS in Syria as of March 23, 2019. However, the fall of the territorial ISIS “Caliphate,” as many experts and officials have argued, does not mean the end of the ISIS ideology nor the end of ISIS-related terror attacks and violence in the region. For example, since March 23, 2019, ISIS sleepers cells have conducted several terrorist attacks in Syria, mainly targeted at civilians.
Even after the territorial defeat of ISIS, the Autonomous Region of North and East Syria (AANES) remains under threat, not only from ISIS but also from Turkey and its proxies as well as the Assad regime and its allies. For instance, In January 2018, Turkish-backed Islamist/jihadi groups attacked the Kurdish region of Afrin in the west of Syria. This attack and invasion was coordinated with Russia assistance; that is, Russia allowed Turkey access to Syrian airspace in order to launch airstrikes against Kurdish forces and civilians in the region. This Russia cooperation with Turkey had two strategic aims: (1) to further distance Turkey from its NATO allies and (2) to weaken America’s Kurdish allies in the region who were fighting ISIS in the east of the country.
Turkish forces and their Syrian proxies were able to occupy Afrin after three months of fighting against the People’s Defense Forces (YPG).
Likewise, the threats by the Assad regime remain critical, especially when President Trump decided to abruptly withdraw U.S. troops from Syria. The Assad regime, which is backed by Iran and Russia, will be the force best positioned to regain control of the AANES region. The Kurds and their allies will feel great pressure to strike a deal with the Assad regime in order to avoid further Turkish aggression, violence, and occupation.
Unlike Turkey, Russia, the Assad regime, or ISIS and other Islamist forces, the AANES and its governing body is based on a principle of decentralization. Power in this system is balanced and decentralized to local self-administration councils. These local councils in the cities operate their local security forces under the umbrella of the SDF. The AANES region is also home to rich natural resources, like oil. However, the AANES region and its government have still not been recognized by the international community or any regional powers. Hence it remains an easy target for the Assad regime, which aims to take total control of this peaceful region, free from ISIS control and rich in natural resources.
One issue that unites regional rivals and enemies ( Assad/ Iran versus Turkey/ Syrian Jihadist) is the Kurdish question. Despite long-standing animosities and geopolitical alliances in the region, Kurdish attempts at self-determination have united regional rivals to foil Kurdish agendas. The most recent example occurred during the Independence Referendum held by the Kurdistan region of Iraq on September 25, 2017. The referendum resulted in Iraq, Iran, and, Turkey uniting against the Kurds and a later Iranian-led attack which facilitated numerous atrocities in the Kurdish region.
Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif traveled to Syria and met with Syrian President Bashar al Assad. Zarif then traveled to Turkey and met his Turkish counterpart and President Erdogan. Zarif aims to mediate between Assad and Turkey’s President Erdogan on the issue of the Syrian Kurds, who are backed by the U.S. and find ways to break U.S. sanctions on the Iranian regime. This Iranian led initiative is similar to a tripartite meeting between Iraq, Iran, and, Turkey before the Independence Referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan where they planned to crush the region militarily and economically.
Even though the AANES is not a completely Kurdish entity and does not seek independence from Syria, threats from regional powers jeopardize its existence due to unclear U.S. policies in the region. Russia’s stance on the AANES is similar to Turkey’s, as Russian President Vladimir Putin recently called for reactivation of an anti-Kurdish treaty between Syria and Turkey known as the Adana Accord. Allowing Turkey to invade the Kurdish region of Afrin in March of 2018 showed Russia’s true intentions toward Kurdish rights.
Washington should not destroy what it has helped build with the SDF and AANES for many reasons, including future terror threats, regional stability, and countering Iran and Turkey’s attempts to stand against American interests. If Washington sells out the AANES, America and her regional allies will be the biggest losers as Iran, Turkey and Russia will take control of what is left in the country and gain long term leverage over the U.S.