Washington Kurdish Institute
April 15, 2019
The Washing Kurdish Institute (WKI) interviewed Dr. Amy Austin Holmes, a Fellow of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, a Visiting Scholar at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University, and Associate Professor at American University in Cairo. Recently Dr. Holmes returned from Syria after spending five weeks following and monitoring the last days of the “Caliphate” of ISIS. During her visit to Syria, Dr. Holmes conducted surveys with the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and researches about the political situation of the Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration of North and East of Syria.
Listen to the interview:
The last days of the “Caliphate”
Dr. Holmes spoke about final days of ISIS in Baghouz town of Deir Ez Zor province. She said” The final battle against the Islamic state caliphate took place in Baghouz, which is Deir Ez Zor governorate which is really it’s farther along eastern Syria, but also relatively far south. So it’s, the [Syrian] regime is right across the border. On the other side of the [Euphrates] river essentially. And it’s also not very far from Iraq. So it’s very difficult terrain I think to maneuver and because of the proximity of the regime, but also the proximity to the border of Iraq.”
The SDF supported by the U.S. led coalition launched the final military campaign to liberate the last stronghold of ISIS on February 9, 2019. However, Dr. Holmes explained the challenges and the difficulties facing the SDF and the international coalition. She said” the battle there lasted longer than I think many people expected because of the large number of civilians that were still inside by Baghouz. I think they estimated that were eventually like 70,000 civilians that, were in Baghouz and because there were children there, for example, they had to be very careful about how the civilians were allowed to.” she added “ some of them were of course imprisoned or taken into camps where they were being held now by the SDF.”
The fate of the foreign ISIS terrorists
Dr. Holmes talked about the foreign terrorists among ISIS. She said” There were a number of, for example, people with European passports that joined the Islamic state willingly, that came all the way from Europe to Syria. Now the question is what will happen to some of those fighters because the SDF has them?” she added “In my opinion, I think these European countries or any other countries should take back their citizens and repatriate them because they were radicalized in Europe or in other places, and it should be their responsibility to deal with their citizens.”
When we asked Dr. Holmes about the calls of Kurdish authorities in Syria to set up an international tribunal to try ISIS members and how realistic is such a request, she said” Regardless of whether how realistic or unrealistic it is, I think it’s, it’s necessary” she explained that the Kurdish administration is not a recognized entity, therefore, there are unable to try these terrorists. “They don’t have political recognition,” she said. “They’re not recognized as a political entity. So if they were to try to put them like on trial or in their courts, of course, they could face problems, right? They also can’t just keep them forever” she added.
She emphasized the idea of an international tribunal” The only real option that, that I think exists is for them to be tried in some kind of an international tribunal in The Hague for example, or for the individual countries to take back their, their citizens as I mentioned before. I mean, so to me, those are the two most realistic alternatives. Either they go back to their home countries, Germany, Great Britain, France, wherever they came from and they could be put on trial and those countries or have to be tried by a court of law or international tribunal like in the Hague.”
The Internally Displaced People (IDP) rather the Kurdish controlled camps than returning to the Assad regime.
Dr. Holmes spoke about the situation of the IDP camps and how the people. She said” There are many IDPs, internally displaced people that fled to northeast Syria. And when I say northeast Syria, I mean the whole part of Syria is now under the control of the SDF, which it’s now like one-third of the country. So it’s quite a large part of Syria. Just in in Deir Ez Zor governorate, for example, we were told they had about 450,000 IDPs from the regime territory. So that means people are fleeing from the territory that is controlled by Bashar Al Assad coming to the northeast.” she added, “The northeast has to deal with not just their own population that lives there in the, in that region, but also IDPs from other parts of Syria.”
Reconstruction and the role of the International Coalition
An immense amount of the autonomous region budget is spent on the fight against ISIS. Dr. Holmes said “I was told that the Syrian Democratic Council, which is essentially the governing body of the autonomous administration that they were spending over 60% of their budget on fighting the Islamic state.” she added “Hopefully after the battle is now against territorial caliphate is over, hopefully they can reduce the expenditures on defense essentially and allow more to be spent on infrastructure rebuilding. I also believe that the international coalition really needs to step in. I mean, the, the global coalition to defeat the Islamic state included 79 countries, right? So large coalition and all, in my opinion, all of those countries, all 79 of them should contribute to reconstruction rebuilding of northeast Syria.”
On the amount of the destruction in the Syrian cities, Dr. Holmes stressed the importance of the international coalition to help rebuild these areas and help the autonomous region not just ”not just to defeat the Islamic state, but also to rebuild so that people can live in a dignified life. They can’t be expected to live, in bombed-out buildings forever.” she also noted that the Syrian Democratic Council is not able to rebuild the cities alone since the region “historically underdeveloped,” and neglected by the regime” therefore they are unable financially for such task.
Not only Kurds are against the Turkish invasion but the Arabs and the Christians are as well
Even though Isis land control has ended in Syria, but the Kurds are worried about other threats facing the region, including a possible Turkish invasion as we saw in our Afrin last year or the return of the Assad regime. When we asked Dr. Holmes whether other ethnic groups in the region share the Kurdish concerns, she said “this is one of the things that I personally was surprised by during the five weeks that I spent over there conducting research is that, because here in Washington, and I think also in other western capitals, there’s this perception that actually it’s only a Kurds who don’t want this Turkish proposal of the safe zone. They don’t want the Turkish troops to deploy. But that’s not true. This region of northeast Syria is diverse. It’s not just Kurds, the, there’s Arabs there, Syriac Christians, there’s Turkmens and Caucasians. And I found that, in fact, the Syriac Christians perhaps or even more opposed to the idea of the Turkish, so-called safe zone and than the Kurds. And the reason is because they will tell you that they belong to a community, the Assyrian or a Syriac Chaldeans, sometimes they’re referred to in different ways, but basically there are Christian community that was persecuted under the time of the Ottoman Empire when the Ottoman Empire collapsed and the Turkish Republic was being established.”
On the Turkish “safe zone” Dr. Holmes said “Turkey is trying to call it a safe zone or sometimes it’s called a buffer zone but it doesn’t really matter what you call it. It’s the fact that they don’t want Turkish troops, to be deployed.”
Other than the Kurds and the Christians, the Arabs are also against the Turkish occupation of the region.” In the northeast. I met many Arabs in for example, in Tabqa or Manbij, Raqqa, Deir Ez Zor, pretty far from the Turkish border actually. So it’s not just those who live along the border that are afraid, but even those that are farther away from the border. Because when they’ve been discussing the safe zone, sometimes, they’ve thrown [Turkey] out numbers, like it’s going to extend 32 kilometers south of the border. That’s a large, very large swath of territory. And also, Arabs, for example, met with the different civil councils. One of the civil councils I met with was the Tabqa civil counsel and we had gone there to talk to them about their current situation and the rebuilding schools, health, et cetera. But the person, one of the Arab Sheikhs, that was there, he actually began his opening remarks by talking about Afrin, like the Turkish intervention in Afrin last year and saying that they don’t want that to happen in Tabqa [his city], so I mean even Arabs who don’t necessarily themselves have a connection to Afrin, they saw what happened Afrin with the Turkish intervention there and they don’t want it to happen in their cities or their region.”
The reason that different communities in the region are against the Turkish invasion is simply to avoid war and atrocities against civilians by Turkey. Dr. Amy said” they finally achieve some stability in this northeast and they’re free of the Islamic state now. I mean, the Caliphate is defeated at least, and they’re free of Bashar Al Assad. So they have a hard-fought, sense of stability and a Turkish intervention could just jeopardize all of that.”
About President Trump’s abrupt decision to withdraw from Syria which created mistrust between the locals and the U.S. coalition and perhaps people in the region might be in favor of reaching agreements with the Assad regime. She said “ People were very shocked about this decision. As you know, secretary Mattis resigned because of this and [Brett] McGurk resigned because of this. If McGurk and Mattis were so upset by the decision that they resigned. You can imagine how people there on the ground in Syria, must’ve felt.”
After reversing the withdrawal decision, now the U.S. troops will remain in Syria which gave hope for the people. On that Dr. Holmes said “Now that the US has agreed to keep around 400 troops, that’s what, the figure that we’ve heard plus some members of the international coalition, people do feel reassured. I mean, I was there when, when I first arrived in like mid-February, there was still this idea that we were going to leave completely and withdraw. And then a while I was there, the numbers they came, they said, well, we’re going to keep 200 troops. And they said, no, we’re going to keep 400 troops. So after that happened, because I was over there, I could see that people were actually very relieved”
Why the people of North and East of Syria hope for the U.S. to stay in Syria?
Dr. Holmes said ”The decision to keep a small U.S. presence also because it means that, most likely we would maintain air cover. So, there is essentially a de facto no-fly zone even though it’s not. Maybe officially acknowledge just the no flies and remain defacto. As long as there’s a small U.S. or coalition presence, there will be also air cover. And that’s what a lot of people, told me they really feel they need the most is, this air cover. But of course, also the troops on the ground is important.”
When asked Dr. Holmes about the unclear U.S. policies in Syria, she said:” this uncertainty, the uncertainty of the U.S. commitment is a big problem.” She added “ And that’s why I personally, think the U.S. needs to clarify its position and publicly announce what we’re going to do, not just because the SDF or the locals, northeast Syria need to know, donors, the NGOs community, our partners, I mean, even France for example, which has,[Emmanuel] Macron has said that they will be committed to the region, et cetera. But also France relies on the U.S .for infrastructure. They rely on the U.S. lines of communication to get in and out basically. So, if even like major partners in the coalition, like France and England, et Cetera, rely on the U.S. for our infrastructure and what we do there. It’s just absolutely vital for everyone involved if the U.S. clarify its position.”
Follow Dr. Amy Austin Holmes: @AmyAustinHolmes