Washington Kurdish Institute
By: Yousif Ismael December 20, 2018
The surprising announcement of plans for a near-term withdrawal of US forces from Syria will significantly weaken the US on the world stage. By leaving Syria while US-allied forces continue to battle ISIS, the US is also forsaking an opportunity to establish a US-friendly safe region in the Middle East. If US presence continued, a secure area similar to the Kurdistan region of Iraq could have been sustained in northern Syria, granting the US a safe haven from the borders of Iran almost to the Mediterranean in a region filled with anti-American regimes and numerous terrorist groups that seek to strike US interests worldwide. It is perplexing that a superpower has chosen to throw away such an opportunity.
Iran is a major focus of the Trump Administration, and there are various reasons for the US to continue to focus on Iran’s roles and policies throughout the Middle East, including their support of terrorism in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, the threat they pose to Israel, and other reasons. With US troops packing up and leaving Syria, Iran is already gleefully planning to fill the gap left by the US forces and their Kurdish allies and, as a first step, is focusing on Deir ez-Zour, an area rich in natural resources and nearby Iraq, a country in which Iran openly exercises significant influence. Indeed, for all the talk of weakening Iran through sanctions, President Trump has, for whatever reason, just handed Iran a major victory in Syria, the one majority Arab nation that has been allied with the Iranian regime for decades.
In addition to Iran, Russia is another obvious and major beneficiary of Trump’s decision to withdraw US forces from Syria. With the Kurds of Syria losing the US, their major foreign ally, Russia will be free to try to influence them, or use them as leverage in discussions with Turkey. Russia, as Assad’s major foreign sponsor and lifeline, will no doubt be pleased to eventually see the Syrian regime take control of the Kurdish region, which is rich in natural resources.
Assad is another big winner. While the Kurds of Syria did not join forces with Turkish-sponsored, Islamist or Arab nationalist Syria rebel groups, nor did they make common cause with the Assad regime, which has a history of human rights violations and denial of the most basic of Kurdish rights. However, the Kurds may be left with little choice but to reach an agreement with Assad if wholly abandoned by the US.
ISIS and other terrorist groups significantly benefit. While ISIS controls significantly less land than in the past, they remain a potent fighting force with thousands of active fighters in their ranks. If the Kurds and their allies lose US assistance and, furthermore, find themselves engaging with existential threats that have emerged as a result of US withdrawal, they will not be able to continue their war on ISIS, and ISIS and other similar terrorist groups will be safe and grow once again – posing a threat that will reach far beyond Syria’s borders. The Kurds and their allies who, until recently were defeating ISIS and replacing the terrorist group’s reign of terror with secular and multi-ethnic local governing structures known as civil councils, will be stuck fighting for their lives, and have no opportunity to build a better future for Syria within the framework of their system of democratic local governance.
US taxpayers deserve to know the current situation
With the assistance of the US-led coalition, the Kurds and their allies formed a group known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which now includes Arab, Kurdish, and Christian fighters, among others. With US backing and training at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars, the SDF bravely fought ISIS and nearly eliminated the terrorist group that recently posed a global security threat. If ISIS is allowed to survive and regroup, the ramifications will reach far beyond the borders of Syria. If Turkey delivers on threats to invade northern Syria, Kurdish SDF fighters will have no choice but to abandon the war against ISIS to defend their homes against Turkish forces and their jihadist allies, and certainly some SDF fighters may either find themselves targeted by Assad or being forced to join his army – and none of these developments serve US interests. While the efforts of the previous US administration to arm Syrian Arab opposition failed for a variety of other reasons, it seems that the current administration found an option in Syria that worked very well and has decided, for whatever reason, to allow all recent gains to be reversed.
What about the Kurds?
Many will call President Trump’s move a betrayal of an ally, but Kurds should realize the fact that they are not allies or partners as America or others claim. To superpowers, the Kurds will always remain disposable proxies as long as they do not have a state and/or recognized entity of their own. Just one year ago, the same US administration remained silent when Iranian-backed militias attacked majority Kurdish disputed areas in Iraq, as the US administration, along with the Iranian regime and other regional powers, was displeased that the Kurds held a referendum on independence. The Kurds of Syria have proven to be skilled and dependable fighters, and their political leadership have built a novel system of autonomous self-rule based on the ideology of Abdullah Öcalan inspired by Murray Bookchin (Libertarian socialism) that is somewhat suited for the Middle East, but definitely worked for Northern Syria, a region rich in diversity and conflict. The Kurds of Syria should appreciate US support of the defense of their homeland – indeed, Kobani would have fallen without support from the US-led coalition. The Kurds should continue their cooperation with the US, especially by sharing intelligence on terrorist groups, but should also open new channels with any side that is willing to guarantee their safety in the face of Turkish aggression. Unfortunately, the most obvious options here are Russia, Iran, and the Syrian regime – three forces who work together, all of whom are historically and currently aiming to weaken US influence.
Why Trump is pulling out?
In an attempt to please Turkey and bring them back into the US and NATO family, Trump is basically giving up Syria. Of course, this disregards an important current regional dynamic – Turkey is nonetheless cooperating with Russia and Iran in Syria. While some officials, think that bringing Turkey closer to the US will serve the US agenda against Iran, it is apparent that Iran is among the largest beneficiaries of a US withdrawal from Syria. As before, Turkey can and will break sanctions on Iran. Turkey, under the one-man rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is increasingly anti-American for strategic and ideological reasons – Turkey is not a secular NATO member which acts as a counterweight to Russian designs in the region, but rather a Muslim Brotherhood-ruled nation that supports various jihadist groups in Syria, has revealed the locations of secret US bases in Syria, and constantly fans the flames of anti-Americanism both within its own borders and abroad. While the US may profit from the recently reported $3.5 billion missile sale to Turkey, and may temporarily block Turkey’s adoption of additional Russian military technology, the total price paid by the US in trying to “win back” Turkey will be much higher.
America’s losing deal
The US may make money in the short term by selling Turkey missiles and abandoning its former allies to forces that wish to massacre them, but, by doing so, the US will lose its most dependable armed ally in Syria, the SDF, and, along with it, all of the expenses incurred in training and supporting the SDF, to say nothing of the cost of needed to face a resurgent threat from ISIS or other similar groups in the near future. Based on past precedent, it is very likely that Turkey will once again block the US from using Turkish territory to coordinate any effort to fight such terrorist groups, as, indeed, Turkey’s interests and worldview align with the jihadist forces of Syria. These jihadist groups, some of whom enjoy direct support from Turkey, pose a threat to world security, as seen time and time again when terror has struck in Europe and beyond.
Iran, strengthened and emboldened by a US withdrawal from Syria, will act with an even heavier hand throughout the Middle East, from Lebanon to Iraq to Yemen, and the US will need to decide whether or not it is willing to provide additional aid to its allies (i.e. Israel and Gulf countries) threatened by potential Iranian aggression.
There are many reasons that the international community should contribute as the US has done in the fight against terrorism, though the US has always chosen to take a leading role in this campaign. However, it seems that now President Trump has chosen to repeat President Obama’s mistake in Iraq in 2011, and decided to sacrifice significant strategic gains in an attempt to realize unknown benefits, despite disastrous consequences.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and positions expressed by authors and contributors do not necessary reflect those of the WKI.