Washignton Kurdish Institute
December 18, 2018
On Wednesday, December 12, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to launch a new wave of a military operations against the Kurdish-led forces in Syria who are fighting what is left of the so-called Islamic State of Syria and Iraq (ISIS) terror group. During a televised speech at a defense summit in Ankara, Erdogan said, “We will begin our operation to clear the east of the Euphrates from the separatist organization within few days. Our target is not the American soldiers – it is the terror organizations that are active in the region.” As usual, Erdogan described the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who have been fighting ISIS for years with the trust and support of the US-led coalition, as “terrorists.” The SDF is the only force in Syria that has consistently had success in fighting ISIS, and includes the Kurds, Arab forces and tribes, and Christian forces in its ranks. The new threats came after Erdogan had previously struck and even invaded parts of Syria with the agreement of both the U.S. and Russia on various occasions. For example, the invasion of the Kurdish region of Afrin in March 2018 was a consequence of a Russian-Turkish deal. This campaign of aggression resulted in Turkey occupying Afrin and flooding the once peaceful area with thousands of jihadist militants, who committed countless war crimes and atrocities against Kurds, Christians, and others in the region. Russia controls the skies in the west of Syria, and, when Kurds refused to allow the Assad regime to take control of Afrin, Russia granted the Turkish military permission to invade the region.
At present, the SDF is pushing ISIS from in their last stronghold east of Syria, in Hajin. But the U.S. administration has also remained silent when Turkey, on several occasions, struck the SDF while they were engaging ISIS. For example, on April 25, 2017, Turkish warplanes bombarded the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) while U.S. forces were not too far from away. The attacks resulted in the deaths of at least 20 members of the YPG and the injury of tens more. The U.S. also remained silent when Turkey invaded Syria in concert with jihadists and took control of al-Bab city and Jarablus. The Turkish military operation ended in another humanitarian disaster.
Erdogan often describes the Kurdish fighters in Syria as “terrorists” and links them to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), who have been fighting the Turkish state for decades and demanding the rights of the Kurdish people within Turkey’s borders. Indeed, while hatred for Kurds is a motivating factor, it is also clear that domestic concerns in Turkey have driven Erdogan to pursue the path of war against the Kurds in attempts to shift focus from the crises that Turkey is facing. Weathering an ongoing economic crisis, Erdogan is appealing to nationalist sentiments to rally the masses around himself and his party. Erdogan’s favored target is the Kurds, a stateless people who have been used and abused many times by their neighbors and world powers, though Kurds have, time and time again, proven effective in fighting forces such as ISIS who seek to promote instability and have also proven willing to welcome others to Kurdish land, giving them safe haven from various threats.
As Turkey’s economy crisis began to deepen in June 2015, Erdogan’s political party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), lost its majority in Turkey, while the Pro-Kurdish Democratic Peoples’ Party (HDP) won 13% of the vote and suddenly posed a very real threat to Erdogan’s plans to increase his powers as president. Erdogan soon ended the peace process between the PKK and the Turkish government and launched a brutal war against the Kurdish region. During Erdogan’s campaign, thousands of Kurdish homes were destroyed, and tens of thousands of Kurds were displaced. Soon Erdogan called for new elections, as the AKP was unable to form a coalition government. In the second round of elections, amidst various restrictions and curfews throughout the Kurdish region, the AKP once again won a majority of the seats in Turkey’s parliament.
In 2016, the AKP presided over the continued deterioration of Turkey’s economy, and Erdogan and AKP mouthpieces promoted an intensified wave of anti-Kurdish rhetoric, accusing the Syrian Kurds of terrorism and threatening to invade the Kurdish region in Syria as the Kurds were engaged in the fight against ISIS. By August 2016, the Turkish military and allied jihadist groups rolled into Syria’s Jarablus and occupied it. Unlike Manbij, ISIS terrorists did not resist in Jarablus, raising many questions, as some Kurds accused Turkey of recruiting ISIS terrorists to join their Syrian jihadist proxy groups.
The failed coup in July 2016 and AKP’s declaration of the State of Emergency dealt another blow to the Turkish economy. Post-coup, Erdogan and the AKP sought to purge any opposition. The purge initially focused on alleged followers of the Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen, who is based in the U.S. and was accused of planning the coup, though Erdogan soon turned against the HDP, who quickly and unreservedly condemned the coup, as they previously posed a threat to his governing majority. Since July 15, 2016, thousands of Kurds been jailed including lawmakers, journalists, and party members, and the Turkish state’s military campaign against the Kurds continues not only within Turkey but also in Iraq as well.
After weakening the opposition and ending the peace process with the Kurds, Erdogan, who had already significantly strengthened his presidential powers in practice, pushed through legal changes to centralize power in the presidency as the Turkish economy continued to collapse. After holding a referendum of questionable legitimacy under the ongoing state of emergency in April 2017, Turkey’s constitution was amended to expand presidential powers and weaken the role of the country’s parliament. during Erdogan’s referendum campaign, he repeatedly threatened the Kurds, again to rally nationalist support behind him and solidify his executive presidency before the country’s economic crisis further intesified. Moreover, following his victory, he formed an official alliance with ultra-nationalist National Movement Party (MHP), and called for a snap elections in June 2018, in the place of the regularly scheduled elections planned for late 2019 – once again, in advance of an intensified economic crisis that was predicted by most observers. When Turkey’s currency was at its weakest, attacks on the Kurdish people were once again used to distract the Turkish citizenry, as Erdogan attempted to rally the country around his unprovoked campaign of military aggression against the Kurds in Syria, eventually occupying Afrin. A brief look at this timeline of events confirms the opportunistic nature of Erdogan’s nationalistic threats and campaigns of military aggression – after winning the elections with new powers, the Turkish currency tumbled by as much as 47 percent, and soon after that he made a speech and issued his new threats against the Kurdish region of Syria.
The U.S. reaction to these various Turkish threats and aggressive actions has been rather soft, even though nearly 2,000 US troops and contractors are working alongside the SDF. The U.S. and its allies have witnessed Turkey’s negative role since the start of the Syrian civil war – Turkey has like supported the jihadist groups to establish and support Turkish zones of occupation, derailed the fight against ISIS terrorists on many occasions, and made unilateral agreements with Russia and Iran against NATO and the United Nations peace talks.
U.S. policymakers should be open and straightforward concerning Erdogan’s recent threats, as his planned attacks not only disturb and distract from the war on ISIS, but also spread jihadists throughout the region. Washington should realize that many Cold War paradigms no longer apply, and Turkey does not act as a NATO ally and has clearly proven that it cannot be trusted to do so. Today’s Turkey is ruled by one man who enjoys unchecked power and works against democracy and human rights, and loudly and actively targets U.S. interests in the Middle East.
The new threats against the Kurds and talk of invasion follow a pattern that has been well established over recent years. With Turkey’s local elections approaching and the country’s economy in a dismal state, Erdogan and the AKP look to create wars to distract Turkey’s citizens and retain their grip on power.