Washington Kurdish Institute
By: Yousif Ismael
November 6, 2018
After threats made by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to attack the Syrian Kurds, the Turkish military initiated a sustained campaign of bombardment of the city and region of Kobani, which, at present, as persisted for many days. These attacks, which included the indiscriminate use of machine guns and heavy artillery, have resulted in the deaths of four fighters of the US-trained Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the death of one child. The predominantly Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG), the armed group that defeated the Islamic State (ISIS) terror group and liberated Kobane in 2015, are now a part of the SDF, who are leading the battle to eliminate ISIS from their last stronghold in eastern Syria.
Kobani: The symbol of defeat for ISIS
After declaring the establishment of a caliphate in June 2014, ISIS launched a large scale assault on the Kurdish region of Kobani, aiming to augment its substantial territorial gains in Syria and Iraq. The terror group were able to gain control most of eastern Syria, and was looking to expand into Kurdish regions of Syria. Initially, ISIS was able to capture most of the Kobani region, including hundreds of villages. However, it was in Kobani where ISIS faced the most fierce resistance to their campaign of expansion, mass murder, and plunder, as the YPG heroically defended Kobani and their fierce and unyielding resistance attracted the attention and eventual support of the US-led Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, who were looking for local partners to combat ISIS, which quickly became a global security threat. The US-led coalition, the YPG, and Euphrates Volcano Brigade (an anti-Assad Arab group), resisted waves of ISIS attacks using heavy weaponry and suicide bombers, and months later delivered to ISIS their first significant defeat, at great cost to the terror group.
As the world was captivated by the resistance of Kobani, Turkey’s President Erdogan followed the situation from across the border and declared, “Kobane will fall to ISIS.” On contrary, the city of Kobani was fully liberated by January 2015, and all ISIS presence was eliminated from the surrounding regions in the months to follow. The Kurds proved to the world that they will can resist ISIS and defend their land, coinciding with the international security interests of the major western powers who were caught unaware by the emergence of the ISIS menace. Unfortunately, Turkey has made their sympathies clear in Syria, standing against the Kurds in their defense of their own land and working with various jihadist groups in Syria, and occasionally restricting American use of the Incirlik NATO base in Turkey for military operations against jihadists in Syria.
Is Kobani on the path of Afrin?
Four years after the invasion and brutal siege at the hands of ISIS, the Kobani region is lively and stable under the administration of the multi-ethnic, Kurdish-led self-governing authority. The site of the first major landmark defeat of ISIS now hosts the US-led coalition, who have established bases in the region to coordinate the ongoing battle against terrorist groups in Syria. Today, Kobani is most stable places in all of Syria, but Turkish attacks could potentially change this, as recently occurred in Afrin. The Kurdish region of Afrin in northwestern Syria was previously an oasis of stability in the war-torn nation, but this changed with the initiation of Turkey’s campaign of aggression against Afrin in March 2018. Afrin, a region that was previously unaffected by Syria’s bloody civil war and indeed was hosting internally displaced Syrians fleeing violence elsewhere in the country, found itself targeted by an unprovoked military campaign led by a NATO army. The Kurdish leadership of Afrin was told by Russia to give control of the Afrin region to Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, and the Kurds refused to do so, resulting in an agreement between Turkey and Russia to allow jihadist groups to invade Afrin. For Assad and Russia, it was a win-win situation as the jihadists were moved further from the Assad regimes zones of control, and the Kurds were weakened. The US did not react to Turkey’s aggression against Afrin; indeed, Syria was divided into two areas of influence, with the US playing a role in the east of the country and Russia doing the same in the west, including Afrin. Today, the jihadist groups and their Turkish allies are executing a campaign of plunder and forced a demographic change in Afrin, with Kurds being forced from their homes and their farmland, and property and resources being exploited or destroyed by various jihadist groups, some of whom have members who are internationally known and sanctioned terrorists.
When asked about the Turkish aggression in Kobane, Sinam Mohammed, the Representative of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) to Washington, said: “These attacks targeted us in Kobane and Tel Abyad simultaneously while our forces had defeated ISIS terrorists in their last stronghold in Hajin city. This is a clear indication that Turkey’s intention is not to end terrorism in Syria. We also see that al Qaeda offshoot of al Nusra presence in Idlib west of Syria where the Turkish forces are based. This is a clear indication that Turkey seeks to deepen the Syrian crisis and prevent any political solutions since both issues will end Turkey’s expansion agendas in the region.”
Regarding the civilian victims of the Turkish attacks, Mohammed sadly said: “The Turkish attack hit children and journalists. The one victim who lost her life is only 6 years old! In addition to the destruction of several homes.”
I asked Mohammed about the U.S. reaction after the Turkish attacks. “U.S. military personnel launched joint patrols with the SDF alongside the borders with Turkey near Kobani. However, these are not enough. These patrols are not enough, but the U.S. should have a substantial solution and they need to stop Turkey from recklessness behaviors in Syria,” she replied.
About the reaction of the SDF and SDC, Mohammed denounced the Turkish bombardment and called for a united position by the international community to stop Turkey from future attacks. She also praised Kobane for defeating ISIS and seeking peace with all. “Kobane resistance in 2014 was participated by all the Kurdish forces from Syria and Iraq as the Kurds united against the terrorists. Today not only Kurds denounce these Turkish attacks, but also non-Kurds in the region have publicly stood against it and called upon Turkey to stop their aggression.”
Turkey’s aggression against the Kurds of Syria has entered a new stage with the bombing of a Kurdish region which is hosting US forces. Turkey is not only hoping to occupy more Kurdish land, but also provoke the US and undermine the US presence and interests in Syria. Recently Erdogan has engaged in discussions with Russia and Iran, both countries which have interests contrary to those of the US in Syria. Indeed, Erdogan is keen to ally with everyone in the region in regard to Syria except for the US and, of course, the Kurds, the two powers who can defeat ISIS and other jihadists groups and stabilize Syria, as they have shown over the past few years.
If the primary concern of the US in Syria is still to degrade and defeat ISIS, US policymakers should be clear and forward with Turkey regarding the ongoing attacks on Kobani, which directly harm the coalition’s most dependable and effective ally in the battle against ISIS and distract from the fight against ISIS. The administration should also warn Turkey that threats to the safety of the US troops in Kobani will not be tolerated.
If Kobane ends like Afrin, with a bloody invasion and forced transition from civilian rule based on self-governance to a jihadist emirate, the Syrian civil war will be even further from finding any sort of resolution, and the Kurdish people, victimized once again, will find themselves fighting yet another battle. In this scenario, the US will lose the Kurds as partners in the battle against ISIS, and ISIS and other jihadist groups will be emboldened, knowing that they enjoy a measure of protection from certain regional powers who prioritise harming the Kurdish people above all else. The SDF, the most effective force fighting ISIS, will be forced to focus their efforts on resisting another attempt by jihadist to destroy Kobani, and the efforts of the US-led coalition and billions of dollars spent on the campaign against ISIS will have gone for nothing. Finally, the Assad regime will greatly benefit as they will take advantage of this situation and expand their region of control. Despite the tragic consequences for all of a sustained campaign of renewed aggression against Kobani, there is no reason to think that Erdogan will be dissuaded in pursing this course of action if he does not face serious international resistance for doing so, and real consequences. Indeed, he has demonstrated many times that he prefers for Turkey to have jihadists as its neighbors to the south rather than Kurds who have some say over their own affairs.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and positions expressed by authors and contributers do not necessary reflect those of the WKI.