Washington Kurdish Institute
June 12, 2018
One of Turkey’s five presidential candidates, Selahattin Demirtaş, the former co-chair of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) is running a limited campaign because he is forced to operate out of a high-security prison cell. Demirtaş, a charismatic young politician previously the lauded as the Kurdish Obama, was arrested in 2016 for various charges, including alleged connections with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a group that been fighting for the rights of the Kurds in Turkey, which is outlawed in Turkey and considered a terrorist organization by the Turkish state. Demirtaş is allowed to run because he has yet to be convicted of a crime, something current President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is trying change by urging courts to speed up his Kurdish rival’s trial, preferably before the elections later this month. If convicted, not only could Demirtaş face up to a 142 year in prison, but it could also push Erdoğan over the 50 percent of votes he currently lacks in order to win the first round of presidential elections.
Originally scheduled for November 2019, Turkey’s snap elections will be held on June 24 of this year, despite Erdoğan having stated he would not call for early elections on account of that being undemocratic. The upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections will take place during a continued state of emergency that was first declared in June 2016 following an attempted coup, and that has been extended seven times since. The Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) conducted a Needs Assessment Mission (NAM) in Turkey, and expressed concerns about holding elections during a state of emergency, but the authorities dismissed the concerns that these conditions would impact the elections.
Other concerns included how the recently changed laws regarding the Supreme Board of Elections framework were insufficiently inclusive, and lacked parliamentary consensus. The legislation allows the counting of un-validated ballots, which the opposition to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) says presents the opportunity for illegal ballot-stuffing. As many as 2.5 million un-validated ballots may have been manipulated in the 2017 referendum that granted Erdoğan sweeping new powers, a referendum that passed by only 1.4 million votes. In addition, Turkey’s election laws do not allow civilian, non-partisan observers at polling stations. And “many ODIHR NAM interlocutors expressed concerns about the impartiality and ability of the lower levels of the administration to adequately manage election day proceedings.”
The recent voting legislation that permits security forces at polling stations was ostensibly to prevent intimidation by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), but the CHP along with the HDP and other opposition groups say it could lead to even less transparency in vote counting.
Opposition parties, like the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP), and center-right Good (Iyi) Party face several hurdles. Almost 4,700 HDP party members have been arrested along with 8 HDP lawmakers. These various obstacles may result in the HDP, which often polls above the threshold of 10 percent of the vote which is required to enter parliament, might be excluded on a technicality, bringing Erdoğan and the AKP that much closer to winning a majority.
“The media landscape comprises numerous broadcast and print outlets, most of which are considered to be associated with the ruling political party. Some ODIHR NAM interlocutors noted that analytical coverage may be limited due to self-censorship and pressure on journalists. Contestants are allowed to campaign in the media on the principle of equality; however, a number of ODIHR NAM interlocutors stated that the majority of media outlets tend to limit coverage of contestants from certain parties. The OSCE Representative on Freedom of the Media has repeatedly called for the authorities bring the country’s media legislation in line with OSCE commitments on media freedom and condemned numerous prison sentences for journalists and police raids on media outlets.”
Therefore not only do opposition parties face challenges like intimidation, arrests, and media censorship that does not allow opposition to have equal coverage as the ruling party, recent election legislation, including the counting of un-validated ballots, also brings into question the fairness of the elections, especially regarding Kurdish voters, who will likely swing the election and shape the formation of parliament. However, the relocation of many polling stations in southwest Turkey, will force 144,000 largely HDP-supporting Kurds to travel longer distances to vote, a margin that could change the outcome of the elections.
“The Kurdish regional vote is of crucial importance,” says Huseyin Levant Köker, research associate at the Roberta Buffett Institute for Global Students. “In metropolitan areas, people who would not vote for HDP normally, may vote for HDP just for the reason to make the HDP pass the threshold.” Guney Yildiz, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, agrees, saying some supporters of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) are likely to give their votes to HDP. “HDP going below the threshold is not the end of the world for the Kurds, broadly, because they are an organized community and HDP’s MPs in the parliament didn’t make much difference for the Kurds because AK Party already has majority… they can even ally with Iyi Party… CHP is usually allied with AK Party when it comes to the Kurdish issue, so Kurds already face a majority whatever happens. But if the HDP’s below the threshold, it will be worse for the pro-opposition.” So, a loss for HDP would only strengthen the AKP, a loss for all opposition parties in parliament, which presuming Erdoğan takes the presidency, will be the only real check on the president’s power.
Already there is a blurred line between the ruling party and the state, giving unequal power and resources for AKP and Erdoğan campaigns over the opposition.
Demonstrations, events, and statements to the press have been banned in Van, a Kurdish majority province, for those who are not part of government agencies. “All demonstrations and events in the form of giving statements for the press, setting up tents, opening stands, staging sit-in protest and commemorations etc. have been banned as of 29.05.2018” according to a Van governorship statement.
The ODIHR also, “expressed concerns regarding a potential misuse of administrative resources and the equality of campaign opportunities. In addition, concerns were voiced over security measures imposed under the state of emergency that may impact the ability to campaign freely and possibly lead to voter intimidation,” according to the report.
Selahattin Demirtaş, formerly a human rights lawyer, has been in prison since November 2016. His party, the People’s Democratic Party, describes itself as pro-peace, pro-labor, pro-self-government, pro-gender equality, and green. According to the party’s website, “achieving peace in Turkey is HDP’s top priority,” and if HDP wins more than the needed 10 percent of the votes, it could deny Erdoğan’s AKP a parliamentary majority.
Turkey’s elections face a crisis of legitimacy. The Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights recommends long-term observers from member-states of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe ‘to follow the electoral process countrywide, and 350 short-term observers to follow election day,’ including a media monitoring element according the ODIRH the Needs Assessment Report. But what would the US reaction be, if observers find the elections not free or fair? “We saw it in the referendum.” Alan Makovsky, a senior fellow for National Security and International Policy at the Center for American Progress told the Washington Kurdish Intitute (WKI). “Trump congratulated Erdoğan on the referendum. This administration is not going to make an issue about human rights… I think there will be some complaints from Europe, but I think Erdoğan will be able to run roughshod over it… You’ll get more criticism from Congress, but nothing Erdoğan can’t handle.”
Still, the opposition carries on in hope to rein in Erdoğan’s growing authoritarianism. On June 6, Demirtaş made his first campaign speech using his ten-minute telephone bi-weekly telephone call to his wife Başak, who put her phone on speaker. It was recorded and distributed by the HDP. “Sadly, Turkey has been transformed into a semi-open prison,” said Demirtaş from his cell. “They are trying to create a society based on fear and trying to reign though fear.”