Washington Kurdish Institute
October 10, 2017
On September 27, two days after the completion of a referendum on independence, the Independent Electoral Commission in Kurdistan Region of Iraq announced the results, stating that, of voters, 92.73% of voted Yes for independence from Iraq and just 7.27% voted No. The turnout was 72.16%, with 3,305,925 voting from a total of 4,581,255 eligible voters.
On June 7, 2017, representatives of political parties in Iraqi Kurdistan decided to hold this independence referendum. Soon after this announcement, the regional and international powers reacted negatively to this decision, and provided various reasons for their opposition. Threats from Iran and Turkey are rooted in their long-standing fears that the indigenous Kurdish populations within their own borders will demand more rights if an independent state of Kurdistan is formed nearby in Iraq – as has been the case for decades. The United States, which considers the Kurds to be allies, consistently opposed the referendum for “distracting from efforts to defeat ISIS.” This negative view from the US was again reiterated soon before the referendum when US Secretary of Defense James Mattis visited Kurdistan and asked the region’s leaders to put off the vote on independence. Moreover, days before the vote, the White House issued a statement opposing the referendum just ten days before the scheduled date. More attempts at persuading the Kurds to postpone the referendum took place in the form of official phone calls between the Kurdish leadership and American officials. The United States’ attempts to block the referendum were motivated by a number of reasons, including a desire to stick to a “One Iraq” policy. This argument failed to resonate with many Kurds, who were forced to be part of Iraq a century ago.
Following the referendum, and despite their significant disagreements for many decades, it took the governments of Iraq, Iran, and Turkey just a few days to agree to impose a blockade on Kurdistan region. The blockade, in its first stages, included shutting down borders allowing access for people and goods to region. The Kurdish leadership has denounced these steps, but is also publicly considering dialogue with Iraq following the vote for independence. Baghdad’s parliament called upon Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to hold a session of parliament to discuss punitive measures against the Kurds. Prior to the referendum, the leadership of the Kurdistan region demanded an alternative date for the referendum or international guarantees that the Iraqi government would end its disputes with the reason and allow for the full exercise of constitutional rights by the region’s citizens. The disputes between the Iraqi central government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) have persisted and multiplied over the last decade and a half, and include such issues as the allocation of the region’s share of the national budget, the payment of salaries of the region’s Peshmerga forces, and implementation of Article 140 of Iraq’s constitution to normalize the situation of the Arabized areas, in addition of the main disagreements over oil production and collection of revenue. While the US presented a package to consider and offered to mediate talks between Baghdad and Arbil, the Kurds refused the offer, citing similar promises from the White House in in 2009 which ultimately had no effect on Baghdad.
The final rejection of the referendum by the US was issued by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who, in a strongly worded statement, in effect ignored the will of the people of Kurdistan and called stated that “the vote and the results lack legitimacy”. The Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament Salim al-Jabouri, chose to remain in Baghdad to head a parliamentary session on sanctions and punishments and rather than attend his father’s funeral. The statements and measures issued included the following:
- The referendum is unconstitutional
- The commander-in-chief of the armed forces (i.e., Iraq’s Prime Minister), is required to take all constitutional and legal measures to preserve the unity of Iraq and protect its citizens and issue orders to the security forces to return to all the disputed areas, including Kirkuk, as they were on June 10, 2014
- Reaffirming the implementation of the Ministerial Council for National Security especially to prosecute all of those who contributed to the referendum, such as the Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani and Kurdish employees who participated in the effort
- Closure of all border crossings ports outside the control of the federal authority and consideration of all goods which enter from those points as smuggled goods. Call upon the neighboring countries to take the necessary measures to help Iraq to implement the decisions
- The current government to return the northern oil fields in Kirkuk and the disputed areas to the control of the federal oil company and to prevent interference by any parties in the area.
- Take measures to implement the executive, legislative and judicial decisions in the Kurdistan Region, especially the removal of the Governor of Kirkuk
- Calling on all countries that have consulates or other diplomatic offices in the Kurdistan region to close them and relocate them to different areas of Iraq
- Take measures to implement the executive, legislative and judicial decisions in the Kurdistan Region, especially the removal of the Governor of Kirkuk
- The Iraqi government must not resume a conditioned dialogue [with the region] until the results of the referendum are canceled
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) rejected the rulings of the Iraqi parliament and called for dialogue. The Prime Ministry of the KRG issued several legal arguments in response to Iraq’s decision. The KRG described Iraq’s decision as “collectively punishing the citizens of the Kurdistan Region.” Tensions increased further on October 9 when Abadi headed a meeting of the Iraqi National Security Council which resulted in new punitive measures against Kurdistan region. Abadi ordered telecommunication companies in the Kurdistan region to transfer their headquarters out of Arbil and Sulaymaniyah, and called for lawsuits against Kurdish officials. Iraq, Iran, and Turkey will hold a summit in Baghdad according to an Iraqi official to implement more sanctions on the Kurds. Baghdad’s condition to resume talks over disagreements with Arbil is the cancellation of the results of the referendum. However, it is almost certain that the Kurdish leadership will not agree to do such a thing.
The Kurds did not declare independence yet as they seek talks with Baghdad but Baghdad’s policies might leave the Kurds with no options, as the international flights to the region have been halted, borders are closed, sanctions are imposed, and military invasion remain an option by Baghdad against Kurdistan. The post-referendum era brought new uncertainties and difficulties to the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, and it still remains to be seen how the US will respond to the new level of cooperation, catalyzed by renewed focus on a common enemy, seen among Baghdad, Tehran, and Ankara.